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WHAT'S ON TAP
HOT OFF THE PRESS
Ivey PMI beats, deliveries slow, prices rise
The Ivey PMI came in better than expected at 57.7, indicating purchasing activity expanded during the month…
… likely driven by inventory restocking, as purchasers look to offset supplier delivery times - which continue to slow…
… while prices keep climbing.
Employment also picked up for a second month straight…
… which should drive manufacturing numbers in the coming jobs print.
ON OUR RADAR
GAINERS & LOSERS
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Maple Leaf Foods (MFI) ran 10% on its Q1, which beat small on revenue thanks to strength in poultry - where double-digit growth in the premium segment…
… came during a period where the rest of the market struggled, with Loblaw reporting declines of a similar magnitude during Q1…
I just got an example this morning on chicken, where our customers, they are buying more into the opening price point of chicken, and they’re buying less of the free form.
… resulting in a 2% market share gain for MFI. Combined with some mid-February price increases to offset inflation, margins were up 90 bps sequentially…
… tracking towards the 15% 2030 target, driving a big beat on EPS, and pushing MFI’s valuation back to the long-term average.
Nutrien (NTR) sold off 7% on a Q1 EPS miss, which came on the back of serious margin compression in the phosphate business…
… due to a spike in input costs (sulfur/ammonia), which management expects will add further pressure to the segment in Q2. Those same dynamics are tailwinds for the nitrogen segment…
… with any price upside sitting on top of a stable cost base, similar to Nutrien’s potash production - which is being sold into a structurally tight market…
… that looks to have staying power, which would do more for NTR’s valuation than any near-term windfall.
Linamar (LNR) ran 5% on its Q1 print, which beat big on the back of near-20% growth in the mobility segment - stemming from recent distressed deals…
… a category where management sees significant opportunities and has the fire power to execute, with leverage at multi-year lows and over a billion in dry powder.
The deals underpin management’s stronger double-digit growth guide, and with 90% of that unimpacted by tariffs - margin deterioration fears appear overdone…
… opening the door for multiple expansion.
EARNINGS
YESTERDAY’S EARNINGS
| Company | Actual | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇦 Premium Brands (PBH) | 0.83 | 0.71 |
| 🇨🇦 BCE Inc. (BCE) | 0.63 | 0.58 |
| 🇨🇦 Maple Leaf (MFI) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| 🇨🇦 MDA Space (MDA) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| 🇨🇦 Cascades (CAS) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| 🇨🇦 Enerflex (EFX) | 0.52 | 0.52 |
| 🇨🇦 Aritzia (ATZ) | 1.15 | 1.03 |
| 🇨🇦 Altus (AIF) | 0.42 | 0.40 |
| 🇨🇦 Jamieson (JWEL) | 0.17 | 0.14 |
| 🇨🇦 IGM Financial (IGM) | 1.21 | 1.19 |
| 🇨🇦 Leon's (LNF) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| 🇨🇦 NFI Group (NFI) | 0.18 | 0.17 |
| 🇨🇦 Trisura (TSU) | 0.78 | 0.76 |
| 🇨🇦 Pembina (PPL) | 0.81 | 0.70 |
| 🇨🇦 Definity (DFY) | 0.97 | 0.87 |
| 🇨🇦 Pason (PSI) | 0.17 | 0.20 |
| 🇨🇦 Extendicare (EXE) | 0.42 | 0.21 |
TODAY’S EARNINGS
| Company | Time | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇦 Emera (EMA) | AM | 1.20 |
| 🇨🇦 Algonquin (AQN) | AM | 0.11 |
| 🇨🇦 Lassonde (LAS-A) | AM | 5.06 |
| 🇨🇦 Enbridge (ENB) | AM | 0.94 |
| 🇨🇦 Brookfield (BAM) | AM | 0.41 |
| 🇨🇦 CES Energy (CEU) | AM | 0.24 |
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