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NPR outflows drive continued population decline

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NPR outflows drive continued population decline

Canada’s population shrank another 0.2% in Q4, shedding over 100K people and overtaking Q3’s contraction as the largest on record. With the exception of Alberta (up 0.1%), which continues to benefit from interprovincial migration - the drawdown was broad-based, driven by the continued reduction in non-permanent residents. That should continue given the current total sits ~600K above Carney’s 5% target, and with immigration sitting well below the 400K annual target on a run-rate basis - NPR outflows should remain the driving force.

Eli Rodney
Eli Rodney

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Mar 18, 2026

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2 min read

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