Nutrien (NTR) sold off 7% on a Q1 EPS miss, which came on the back of serious margin compression in the phosphate business…

… due to a spike in input costs (sulfur/ammonia), which management expects will add further pressure to the segment in Q2. Those same dynamics are tailwinds for the nitrogen segment…

… with any price upside sitting on top of a stable cost base, similar to Nutrien’s potash production - which is being sold into a structurally tight market…

… that should have more staying power than the Iran conflict, which would do more for NTR’s valuation than any near-term windfall.

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