TSX
1D %
YTD %
35,506.28
1.1%
11.4%
TSXV
1D %
YTD %
930.88
2.7%
6.3%
S&P 500
1D %
YTD %
7,591.70
0.6%
10.7%
NASDAQ
1D %
YTD %
26,081.72
0.7%
12.3%
US 10Y
1D
YTD
4.96
11 bps
79 bps
DJIA
1D %
YTD %
52,064.10
0.6%
7.6%
CA 10Y
1D
YTD
3.95
10 bps
52 bps
CAD/USD
1D %
YTD %
0.723
0.2%
0.8%

WHAT'S ON TAP

HOT OFF THE PRESS

Latest trade escalation has limited impact

The latest US trade escalation has more bark than bite, with items removed from the tariff list offsetting those added - leaving just under $1B of import bans…

… which were primarily concentrated around alcohol. With Peller now private, there’s limited public company exposure - and the economic impact is small at ~0.3% of total US exports.

Similarly, Trump’s threat to cut us out of the ~$50B GSA Multiple Award Schedule market would have some impact - but at 6% of US federal government contract spending (DoW, DoE, etc.) and a small fraction of that tied to Canada…

CGI Inc. (GIB-A) might be the only TSX issuer to feel it, given they did $521M through the program in 2025 - representing 4% of total revenue (32% of US federal revenue).

While the impact of this round is more on the news cycle than anything, we’ll see if the rumoured expansion of our EU relationship is also posturing

… when details come out mid-month, given the region would have to take meaningful share above its current ~8% to offset lost US trade - should escalation continue.

Investment position jumps $619B in Q2

Canada’s international investment position grew by a record $619B in Q2

driven by strong markets and a weaker loonie, given equities represent ~70% of our assets and ~50% of our liabilities.

That strength was broad-based geographically - with American (up 15%), European (up 14%), and Japanese (up 37%) markets all contributing meaningfully.

With mixed markets so far in Q3, that tailwind might not be there for the next print - but the liabilities side of the balance sheet is likely to keep growing

Enbridge buys more US assets for $2.6B

Enbridge is paying US$2.6B for Tallgrass Energy’s crude oil business, a price tag that represents 10-11× EBITDA before synergies…

… enabling the company to finance the deal with equity and maintain balance sheet flexibility. While the financial impact is small (2-3% of incremental EBITDA), the deal has strategic value…

… with the acquired infrastructure connecting three basins and providing direct access to 500 kbpd of refining capacity. Alongside its recent $600M Salt Creek deal, Enbridge is selectively bulking up its US footprint

at a time when the value of North American energy infrastructure rising.

ON OUR RADAR

GAINERS & LOSERS

Talon (TLO)
1D %
YTD %
11.20
34.3%
86.7%
Capstone (CS)
1D %
YTD %
14.53
9.3%
5.4%
Obsidian (OBE)
1D %
YTD %
17.58
4.6%
108.8%
GURU Energy (GURU)
1D %
YTD %
3.45
8.7%
30.9%
Dynamite (GRGD)
1D %
YTD %
59.12
4.0%
28.5%
Transcontinental (TCL-A)
1D %
YTD %
4.95
7.8%
-

Groupe Dynamite (GRGD) closed up 4% after beating big in Q2, with same-store sales growth of 10% translating to sequential improvement on a two-year stack basis…

… and margins expanding to a new record (GRGD aims to hike prices at 2x inflation).

Combined with a slightly stronger start to Q3, management raised its full-year guide

which should ease investor growth concerns, bringing GRGD’s valuation closer to Canadian peers like Aritzia (ATZ).

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About Bullpen: Bullpen Finance Inc. publishes content on Canadian markets and provides paid research coverage of select Canadian issuers. Bullpen is paid in cash by covered issuers, does not accept stock or options, does not hold positions in covered securities, and does not conduct investment banking business. Bullpen and LodeRock Advisors Inc. are affiliated; LodeRock provides investor relations services to issuers, some of whom are covered by Bullpen Research. When a post discusses a covered issuer, a specific disclosure appears at the top of the post. This post is published for general information purposes. It is not personalized investment advice and is not tailored to any individual reader’s circumstances. Bullpen is not a registered investment adviser or dealer. For full disclosures, including analyst certification, jurisdictional statements, and conflict of interest policies, please see our Legal & Disclosures section on our website.

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