The latest US trade escalation has more bark than bite, with items removed from the tariff list offsetting those added - leaving just under $1B of import bans…

… which were primarily concentrated around alcohol. With Peller now private, there’s limited public company exposure - and the economic impact is small at ~0.3% of total US exports.

Similarly, Trump’s threat to cut us out of the ~$50B GSA Multiple Award Schedule market would have some impact - but at 6% of US federal government contract spending (DoW, DoE, etc.) and a small fraction of that tied to Canada…

… CGI Inc. (GIB-A) might be the only TSX issuer to feel it, given they did $521M through the program in 2025 - representing roughly 4% of total revenue (32% of US federal revenue).

While the impact of this round is more on the news cycle than anything, we’ll see if the rumoured expansion of our EU relationship is also posturing…

… when details come out mid-month, given the region would have to take meaningful share above its current ~8% to offset lost US trade should escalation continue.