Canada’s population inched 0.2% higher in Q2, adding 80K people and posting the slowest Y/Y growth since 1916…

… which should continue, given a methodology change drove a huge revision to NPR numbers (permit extensions now included). With the current total now sitting ~690K above Carney’s 5% target…

… the category should keep a lid on growth in the near-term and put upward pressure on population age, which has been grinding higher in recent years (~41 currently).

Permanent immigration should be a non-factor, with the total trending at or below target for years…

… similar to interprovincial migration, which has shown consistent east to west movement since the pandemic.

Retail sales fell 0.7% M/M to $74B, marking the first down month in the last six on a 1.1% decline in volumes…

… led by Ontario and BC, with Toronto and Vancouver falling 4.7% and 1.6% respectively.

At the category level, the drawdown was broad-based - with general merchandise (down 1.9%), vehicle dealers (down 0.8%), and gasoline vendors (down 0.9%) representing the largest drag…

… despite elevated gas inflation, as volumes dropped 3.5%. That looks set to reverse, with estimates calling for a 1.3% gain in August…

… but the quality of that growth is key, as higher fuel and non-discretionary spending aren’t necessarily a signal of consumer confidence.

Payroll employment growth was modest in July, rising for a fifth straight month…

… on broad-based gains led by education and health care, which offset outflows in public administration and wholesale trade.

Notwithstanding the continued momentum in payroll, job vacancies have been largely flat for over a year at 501K…

… resulting in an elevated unemployment-to-vacancy ratio. Combined with the trade war and elevated unemployment duration, let’s hope the Canada Investment Summit gets projects and job creation moving.

Ag Growth (AFN) sank nearly 30% on its proposed debt amendments, which would see the rate on its notes due at year end rise 375 bps to 9%…

… if approved at the end of October. With over $200M due in 2027, it’s reasonable to expect management will pursue a similar “raise and extend” strategy…

… as they contend with a shrinking backlog…

… and slowing revenue, with the tailwind from Brazil now gone.

With the stock off 27% on the news, it seems like investors are discounting more than just higher interest expense…

… which is likely to keep a lid on the multiple until resolved.

Thinkific (THNC) jumped 90% after announcing a reorganization and positive revision to Q3 guidance, with management expecting to hit the top end on revenue…

… and come in above on EBITDA, thanks to 500 bps of margin expansion…

… driven by a 31% reduction to headcount, which is expected to save the company $19M on a run-rate basis. With AI changing the landscape, today’s move could be a case study for other small cap software names…

… though part of the bid likely reflects the pessimism priced into THNC shares, which still trade below 1x sales. Let’s see if it’s a one-off, or if other companies follow suit.

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