Retail sales fell 0.7% M/M in July to $73.7B, marking the first down month in the last six on a 1.1% decline in volumes…

… led by Ontario and BC, with retail sales in Toronto and Vancouver falling 4.7% and 1.6% respectively.

At the category level, the drawdown was broad-based - with general merchandise (down 1.9%), vehicle dealers (down 0.8%), and gasoline vendors (down 0.9%) representing the largest drag…

… despite elevated gas inflation, as volumes declined 3.5% in July. We’ll monitor the degree to which fuel trends reverse, with early August estimates suggesting retail sales rose 1.3%. The quality of that growth is key…

… as higher fuel and non-discretionary spending aren’t exactly a ringing endorsement of consumer confidence.

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