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WHAT'S ON TAP
HOT OFF THE PRESS
Hormuz down, oil up
After week one of the Iran conflict, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains stalled (20% of global oil flows)…
… resulting in production cuts and refinery shutdowns. Taken together, oil futures ran 30% before talks of a reserve release tempered the rally - which should be the dominant narrative in markets this week.
Beyond Trump’s Truth Social account (half kidding), I’ll be watching yields - which have rallied ~7% as the market positions for inflation caused by the disruption…
… which could shift to recessionary positioning (bonds bid, lower yields) if $100 oil has staying power… let’s see.
ON OUR RADAR
Flagging the three by-elections on April 13th, after which we’ll see if Carney gets a technical majority (172 seats)…
… which requires a win in each district. Scarborough and Rosedale are Liberal locks, which leaves Terrebonne - a seat that currently favours the BQ…
… but looks like it will come down to the wire.
GAINERS & LOSERS
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Aecon (ARE) added 8% on its big Q4 print, with continued nuclear momentum driving a 10% top line beat and better margins magnifying the impact on the bottom line.
Those fundamental tailwinds look set to repeat, with ARE’s ~$11B backlog underpinning management’s call for Y/Y revenue growth…
… and its transition away from fixed price contracts towards more risk-mitigated structures (cost plus or unit pricing).
That should drive margin improvement as it plays out…
... prompting positive estimates revisions from the street, indicating recent multiple expansion isn’t a pure re-rate…
… but an expectation that the company can grow into its valuation.
Algonquin (AQN) lost nearly 12% on its Q4 results, which beat estimates but came with a tax-driven reduction to previous 2027 guidance. With the new midpoint sitting 11% below consensus…
… the drawdown seems fair, and the resulting multiple compression is more a reflection of weaker forward expectations than a market disconnect.
INSIDER TRANSACTIONS
| Insider | Company | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Claude Mongeau | Cenovus (CVE) | $4.7M |
| Jared Ducs | Surge (SGY) | $162K |
| Kirsty Roth | Thomson Reuters (TRI) | $502K |
| Mike Rose | Tourmaline (TOU) | $623K |
| Mirko Bibic | Royal Bank (RY) | $249K |
| Jeffery Zdunich | Whitecap (WCP) | $102K |
EARNINGS
FRIDAY’S EARNINGS
| Company | Actual | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇦 Algonquin (AQN) | 0.06 | 0.05 |
| 🇨🇦 AltaGas (ALA) | 0.77 | 0.76 |
TODAY’S EARNINGS
| Company | Time | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇦 Constellation (CSU) | AM | 28.0 |
ECONOMIC DATA
FRIDAY’S ECONOMIC RELEASES
| Release | Actual | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇦 Ivey PMI | 56.6 | 51.1 |
| 🇺🇸 Non Farm Payrolls | -92K | 59K |
| 🇺🇸 Unemployment Rate | 4.4% | 4.3% |
The Ivey PMI came in better than expected at 56.6, indicating purchasing activity increased the most since September…
… on the back of inventory stockpiling, with balances rising more than any other time in recent years and supplier deliveries slowing - hinting at tighter supply chains…
… which could signal a future production ramp, flowing through to GDP. It could take a minute though, with the employment index down for the second straight month…
… which should show up in manufacturing employment in the next jobs print.
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