In the first week of the Iran conflict, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains stalled (20% of global oil flows)…

… resulting in production cuts and refinery shutdowns. Taken together, oil futures ran 30% before talks of a reserve release tempered the rally - which should be the dominant narrative in markets this week.

Beyond Trump’s Truth Social account (half kidding), I’ll be watching yields - which have rallied ~7% as the market positions for inflation caused by the disruption…

… which could shift to recessionary positioning (bonds bid, lower yields) if >$100 oil has staying power… let’s see.