Markets should be choppy after Israel and the US trade bombing campaigns with Iran, which look set to continue. Oil futures added >5%, extending the near-20% rally leading up to the attack…

… which should drive short-term equity movement (producers up, airlines down). What happens next depends on the conflict’s duration, with supply chain risk growing the longer ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is stalled.

Following its Venezuelan operation in January, US success in Iran would represent the second major disruption to Chinese oil supply this year… let’s see.