By now Carney’s in China, rubbing shoulders with Xi Jinping on the first visit by a PM since 2017. The overarching themes of the trip are increasing trade…

… attracting new capital, and removing Chinese tariffs on Canadian canola. On the latter, despite its importance as an end market…

… and the demand destruction tariffs have caused…

… I’ll take the under on Chinese concessions, assuming Canada won’t budge on its EV tariffs. While some of the lost demand can be diverted to end markets like Europe…

… it’s likely the prairies will be feeling the squeeze for some time, Saskatchewan in particular - given the province accounts for over half of total production.

With roughly 8% of the province’s workforce tied directly to canola farming (~14% including indirect exposure), the impact of prolonged tariffs could be much bigger than trade.

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