China’s made the strategic aim of its recent 75% canola seed tariffs clear, offering to drop them in exchange for the removal of Canada’s import tax on Chinese EVs. While that seems reasonable, given China’s importance as an end market…

… and the impact on producer profitability the tariffs have already had…

… it’s not that simple, as a resolution would mean breaking from U.S. policy - stirring the pot with a country that’s far more important to our auto trade than China ever will be. With the category accounting for >10% of total trade…

… Carney’s incentivized to keep it running smoothly, especially considering Ontario and Quebec own the lion’s share of it.

Bottom line: not an easy fix. If I had to guess, I assume Carney will use it as a bargaining chip in upcoming negotiations and find some other way to make the western provinces whole. Let’s see.

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