Canola futures fell ~5% on China’s preliminary 75% tariff on Canadian canola seed exports - a move that targets a $4-5B per year export category that China is the dominant end market for (~70%).

The escalation rounds out the 100% tariffs placed on Canola oil/meal in March and reinforces the complexity of the trade picture, as Canada looks to China as a potential home for lost U.S. lumber exports.

With the formal investigation by the PRC set to end no later than early 2026, it wouldn’t be surprising to see concessions made on our existing tariffs on Chinese goods - we’ll monitor how this one develops and keep you in the know.