Retail sales rose by 0.6% M/M in June, which beat estimates of 0.4% and marked the sixth consecutive month of gains…

… primarily driven by strength in Ontario.

At the category level, discretionary gains were broad-based, which more than offset the 4.1% decline in gasoline and fuel sales.

We expect this decline to reverse in July as fuel prices re-accelerate, in line with CPI data.

Early estimates for July retail sales call for a drop of 0.8% M/M, which we believe points to a slowdown in non-energy retail sales, partly offset by higher fuel prices.

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