The unemployment rate rose to 6.5% in September, in line with estimates…

… but for different reasons, as 68K of job losses split evenly between full and part-time work came in well below expectations for a small gain…

… and wiped out the gains made so far in 2026. At the sector level, losses were driven by the fourth month of public sector outflows - with education and health care contributing 58K in September…

… while the provincial trends continue, with losses concentrated in Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia partly offset by gains in Alberta.

The labour market softness has been masked by our aging population, which has pushed the participation rate to 64.8% - the lowest since 1997…

… which raises the bar for the BoC rate hikes despite inflationary pressures. Let’s see what happens at the end of the month.

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