The unemployment rate rose to 6.7% in October, worse than calls for no change…

… as full-time job loss outweighed part-time gains, driving 46K of YTD losses.

At the industry level, a 29K outflow in wholesale and retail trade was offset by strength in construction, education, and health care…

… while at the provincial level, losses were concentrated in Alberta and Ontario - with gains in British Columbia and Quebec moderating the impact.

With unemployment already elevated, we’ve been following other measures of labour market health like vacancies (not moving) and the job-finding rate - which sits well below the long-term average at ~19%…

… and could translate to further downside in workforce participation if we don’t see improvement soon (already at ‘97 lows).

The Ivey PMI held steady at 58.3, sitting firmly in expansion territory…

… on a continuation of recent trends, with the price index sitting near highs…

… which is driving inventory builds in conjunction with slower supplier delivery times, as purchasing managers hedge against further supply chain disruption.

Budget 2026 outlined a $2.7B Defence Industrial Strategy commitment, which sent Canadian space names higher…

… given establishing a sovereign medium-lift space launch capability is one of the core aims of that spend. Medium-lift launch vehicles are required to deploy satellite constellations, like Telesat’s recently expanded Lightspeed network…

… which benefits both it and MDA Space (MDA), who’s contracted to manufacture the satellites for Telesat and many others like the Canadian Space Agency.

5N Plus (VNP) is a second order beneficiary, as the company’s space solar cell offering (specialty semiconductors) should track constellation deployment.

Leon’s (LNF) jumped 9% on the back of its Q3 results, as same-store sales growth continued moving in the right direction…

… and could flip positive in Q4 depending on consumer health - with an easier Y/Y comparison, a shift in sales from Q3, and share gains in commercial appliance after a large competitor exited the market.

With management targeting a similar gross margin profile to last year, growth would translate to leverage over fixed costs…

… to drive improved bottom line performance, assuming the company maintains its SG&A discipline…

… which investors are starting to price, with modest multiple expansion in recent months pushing LNF’s valuation just over the long-term average.

Trisura Group (TSU) dropped 30% alongside its Q3 results, which showed pressure on underwriting income…

… driven by higher claims activity and reserve builds in its US Programs segment, which could get worse due to DryStone Capital’s bankruptcy in October. With most US premiums ceded to reinsurance partners…

… a default could create losses well in excess of earned fees and the capital tied up in its retained share (DryStone’s reinsurance entity remains operational). With the company focused on growing contribution from its Primary Lines…

… management expects the DryStone earnings impact to be less than it saw in Q4/22 (~$82M), though uncertainty could keep a lid on the multiple in the near term.

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