Primaris (PMZ) continues to execute its playbook, acquiring Upper Canada Mall for $411M from Oxford and CPP in a deal that high-grades the portfolio…

… and has the same value creation levers as previous acquisitions, with an opportunity to replace bankrupt tenants (Hudson’s Bay, Toys R Us, Sears) at market rents.

Executing that playbook should restart meaningful growth in same-property NOI…

… which investors are starting to price in, as PMZ has dramatically outperformed its retail REIT peers this year. Sometimes, it just takes time for the market to wake up.

First Quantum (FM) fell 15% after a committee recommended a temporary restart of Cobre Panama to fund the mine’s closure, which represents 47% of the company’s pre-suspension production…

… and over half of total EBITDA, with the mine producing as much as 1.5% of the world’s copper in 2023.

With copper prices nearly doubling over the past few years, restarting operations would bring on much needed near-term supply…

… but the eventual closure would add to an already large projected deficit in the coming decades. Let’s see what happens.

Gabe published a great piece yesterday that puts Timbercreek Financial’s valuation in perspective. At a sub-0.7x P/B multiple…

… current prices imply a ~$220M impairment, assuming a return to its long-term average valuation. That’s near TF’s staged loan total…

… and materially above the $171M of “excess” over a normalized ~7% staged loan balance. Assuming management wrote off the entire excess balance (no chance), the resulting impairment would take TF’s book value per share to $5.81…

… or >10% above current prices, which makes us think dividend concerns are a factor. For TF’s current yield premium over 2Y GoC bonds to return to its ten-year average…

… it would require a 26% cut, but that’s not how MICs work - given a 100% payout to shareholders allows TF to avoid taxation.

While there’s near-term noise as Timbercreek works through portfolio stress, its financial incentives support long-term distribution stability - which should become clear once it turns the corner.

Enerflex (EFX) jumped 11% after announcing a contract for 450 MW of natural gas-fired power generation units to support a data center project, which will add to its North American ES business (~50% of total)…

… and is supported by $100M of investments in facilities and capabilities.

The deal adds to a growing ES backlog that should get bigger, underpinned by EFX’s 7 GW opportunity pipeline for distributed power applications…

… which has a $15B tailwind from data center development…

… that could drive multiple expansion if the company can keep executing.

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