First Quantum (FM) fell 15% on Wednesday after a Panamanian committee recommended a temporary restart of Cobre Panama to fund the eventual mine closure, but rebounded slightly as several analysts had more optimism around renegotiations.

Prior to the suspension in late 2023, Cobre Panama was 47% of the company’s total copper production…

… and over half of total EBITDA, with the mine producing as much as 1.5% of the world’s copper in 2023.

With copper prices nearly doubling over the past few years, restarting operations would bring on some much needed near-term supply…

… while a closure would add pressure to an already large projected supply deficit in the coming decades.

We’ll see where negotiations ultimately end up and what concessions FM will yield in order to restart the mine. Currently, FM has authorization to process stockpiled ore which is anticipated to produce 30-40 kt of copper in 2026.

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