Disclosure: Bullpen receives compensation from Altius Minerals for research coverage.
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WHAT'S ON TAP
HOT OFF THE PRESS
New home prices fall 0.2%, led by Ontario
New home prices declined 0.2% sequentially in September, below consensus on a broad-based decline at the provincial level except for BC…
… which has been a major drag on numbers in recent years. If that trend reverses, the Y/Y trajectory could resume its improvement…
… while the supply/demand dynamics in multi-family get sorted out.
Cybersecurity: yet another AI trade
Government websites were taken offline temporarily to address a critical vulnerability in the PHP language (~75% of websites use it), which was discovered using AI - illustrating why cybersecurity has outperformed through 2026.
While the pure-play cyber names are US-listed, Open Text (OTEX) is the closest we’ve got in Canada - with nearly a quarter of its revenue coming from cybersecurity.
With its Secure Communications segment accounting for nearly half of the top line in fiscal 2026, BlackBerry (BB) provides cyber-adjacent exposure…
… and so does Calian Group (CGY), whose IT & Cyber Solutions segment generated 24% of 2025 revenue - which should now be lower following the sale of its US business.
With AI’s rapid development, we expect this theme to be topical going forward - as a risk for most and an opportunity for some.
Industrial product prices rip on crude spike
Industrial product prices rose 2% M/M in September, tracking ahead of estimates…
… driven by another 12% spike in energy prices as the US/Iran conflict resumed (IPPI was 0.3% excluding energy).
Similar dynamics played out in raw materials, with input costs rising 5% sequentially on the back of a 14% jump in crude products…
… which has been a major driver behind the growing consensus around a BoC rate hike next week, given the focus Tiff Macklem has placed on it lately.
We haven't raised our rates yet. We've been looking through the increase in energy prices, but the longer this goes, the harder that gets. So we are asking ourselves that question. Are we going to have to raise rates?
ON OUR RADAR
Altius Minerals (ALS) signed a royalty deal with Buffalo Potash, paying $8.5M ($3.4M upfront) for a 1% GOR on its Disley West property and a ROFO on its Disley East property. The deal builds on Altius’ producing potash footprint (14% of NAV)…
… and should begin contributing next year, with Buffalo targeting first production in Q1/27 at an annual capacity of 125kt of soluble-grade potash. Read the full piece.
GAINERS & LOSERS
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Mullen Group (MTL) jumped 12% on Q3 results that delivered record revenue…
… and strong operating margins, driven by tighter requirements for all new work (requires 25% EBITDA margin).
With YTD results suggesting that Mullen will easily clear its 2026 targets…
… a robust balance sheet that enables it to pounce on any opportunistic M&A…
… and solid growth prospects from Canada’s nation-building agenda (Alberta in focus), it’s no surprise to see the multiple sitting two turns above the long-term average.
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