Industrial product price prices rose 2% M/M in September, tracking 110 bps ahead of street estimates…

… driven by another 12% spike in energy prices as the US/Iran conflict resumed (IPPI was 0.3% excluding energy).

Similar dynamics played out in raw materials, with input costs rising 5% sequentially on the back of a 14% jump in crude products…

… which has been a major driver behind the growing consensus around a BoC rate hike next week, given the focus Tiff has placed on it lately.

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We haven't raised our rates yet. We've been looking through the increase in energy prices, but the longer this goes, the harder that gets. So we are asking ourselves that question. Are we going to have to raise rates?

Tiff Macklem (BoC Governor) - IMF-World Bank Annual Meeting, October 2026

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