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WHAT'S ON TAP
HOT OFF THE PRESS
Inflation drops, but rates likely to stay put
Headline inflation of 1.8% came in lighter than expectations, declining from January’s 2.3%…
… driven mainly by a roll-off of the GST holiday last year, which brought down Y/Y growth in the cost of food, alcohol, and toys…
… adding to the continued downward pressure from shelter inflation (mainly rent & mortgage interest). Combined with some bad labour and GDP numbers recently…
… this CPI print could have driven a cut from the BoC, which now looks unlikely given the potential inflation from Iran.
Housing inventory falls
Housing starts were in-line with estimates for February, rising to 251K on a pickup in multi-unit activity…
… which showed up in core markets like Ontario, Quebec, and BC - offsetting some Y/Y weakness in Alberta.
While still elevated, unabsorbed inventory dropped for the first time in six months…
… a move that will need to persist for new unit construction to rebound.
ON OUR RADAR
Flagging GO REIT’s $440M of M&A, which comes after management highlighted Zohran Mamdani’s plans to freeze rents are impacting asset prices…
This election is creating a similar moment in time. Assets are coming to market at attractive valuations and sellers are starting to signal a clear willingness to transact.
… creating an opportunity for well-capitalized players to transact - surprise surprise.
GAINERS & LOSERS
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RFA Financial (RFA) ran 11% after announcing $340M of coming asset sales, as it continues to wind down Artis’ real estate portfolio…
… in order to fund its mortgage lending activity, the core reason the two entities merged last year. Using the math from RFA’s merger deck…
… that $340M could generate ~$65M of earnings once redeployed - ramping up to ~$280M if it can hit its five-year, $1.5B asset recycling target.
Telesat (TSAT) ran nearly 20% on a Q4 beat and military upgrade to its Lightspeed satellite constellation, which should attract another ~$1B through 2026…
… en route to global commercial service in 2028, financed in part by the cash flows from a steadily declining GEO business. That’s led to litigation…
… which the market is shrugging off for now, with TSAT notching new highs on the print.
INSIDER TRANSACTIONS
| Insider | Company | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Craig Richardson | Definity (DFY) | $380K |
| Henry Hodaly | Wheaton (WPM) | $950K |
EARNINGS
YESTERDAY’S EARNINGS
| Company | Actual | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇦 Couche-Tard (ATD) | 0.81 | 0.83 |
TODAY’S EARNINGS
| Company | Time | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇦 Boyd Group (BYD) | AM | 0.61 |
| 🇨🇦 AutoCanada (ACQ) | PM | 0.43 |
| 🇨🇦 Power Corp. (POW) | PM | 1.44 |
ECONOMIC DATA
TODAY’S ECONOMIC RELEASES
| Release | Time | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇦 Foreign Security Buys | 7:30AM | 4.7B |
| 🇨🇦 BoC Rate Decision | 8:45AM | 2.25% |
| 🇺🇸 PPI M/M | 7:30AM | 0.3% |
| 🇺🇸 Factory Orders M/M | 9:00AM | 0.1% |
| 🇺🇸 Fed Rate Decision | 1:00PM | 3.75% |
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