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WHAT'S ON TAP
HOT OFF THE PRESS
Building permits jump 18% to $15B
Building permits jumped 18% to ~$15B, well ahead of expectations…
… driven by non-residential activity, which increased $1.8B sequentially - led by $1.3B of new permits in Ontario for a medical institution. Commercial and industrial contributed to a smaller degree…
… as did residential intentions, which rose nearly $500M (6%) on increased activity in Alberta and Quebec.
ON OUR RADAR
GAINERS & LOSERS
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Bird Construction (BDT) ran 11% on a massive Q2, with revenue cracking $1B for the first time (up 23%) - supporting management’s growth guide of >20%…
… which is underpinned by a combined backlog of $12B, where new orders continue to outpace revenue thanks to broad-based end market demand and recent M&A.
With >80% of the order book made up of more profitable collaborative work, the company’s margin trajectory remains up and to the right…
… which should flow through to forward estimates, driving nearly six turns of multiple expansion over the past year.
Calian (CGY) added another 7% on its Q3 results, which beat on ~20% revenue growth and crushed EPS estimates thanks to 120 bps of Y/Y margin expansion…
… that should continue, with management calling for mid-teens and low-20s revenue and EBITDA growth for 2026 - underpinned by a $1.6B backlog that includes its recent $300M+ British Army contract and $24M acquisition of Galaxy.
At sub-1x leverage and $180M of liquidity, there’s likely more tuck-in M&A coming. We could see a larger deal too, with the 2.5x threshold absent from the Q3 materials (tin foil, but it’s been there since 2024)…
… a heightened sense of urgency around capital deployment from management given the demand backdrop…
… we are trying to prepare ourselves so that we can accelerate the pace, we can find strong ideas that we can deploy capital on, and build more scale that will be rewarded over the longer term.
… and a multiple that allows for equity issuance if needed.
TerraVest (TVK) ran 9% on its Q3 print, which beat small on revenue and big on EPS - thanks to data center driven growth in its HVAC segment…
… which runs at structurally higher margins than the rest of the business. While momentum in the company’s fundamentals remains strong…
… the stock might have trouble getting back to highs until the insider trading overhang is in the rearview.
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