Air Canada (AC) fell 6% Friday after wrapping up its $800M SIB, with 41% of tendered shares purchased at an average price of $29. With the wall of support now gone…

… focus shifts back to the fundamentals, with street estimates sitting near the midpoint of the guidance given by management in Q2…

… but jet fuel prices rising another 14% since that guidance was given.

Any sustained elevation could put further pressure on fuel margins…

… representing a potential risk to company targets and to valuation, which currently sits above its long-term average…

… indicating investor optimism around Air Canada’s ability to weather the geopolitical storm. Let’s see if input costs stabilize or if we revisit guidance again this year.

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