Disclosure: Bullpen receives compensation from Altius Minerals for research coverage.

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7,728.20
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26,445.44
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US 10Y
1D
YTD
4.70
2 bps
53 bps
DJIA
1D %
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53,791.85
0.3%
11.2%
CA 10Y
1D
YTD
3.71
1 bp
27 bps
CAD/USD
1D %
YTD %
0.718
0.1%
1.4%

WHAT'S ON TAP

HOT OFF THE PRESS

Air Canada’s misleading $2.5B Aeroplan deal

Air Canada (AC) was busy after the bell, announcing Q2 results and reinstating a full-year guide that sits just under consensus on EBITDA and well below on FCF.

More interesting than that is its $2.5B, 25% sale of Aeroplan to Blackstone and CDPQ among other investors - with $800M of the proceeds going towards a substantial issuer bid

… and the remaining $1.7B earmarked for an upcoming bond maturity. While the headline $10B valuation looks good on paper (AC’s market cap is sub-$8B), the deal is structured like debt instead of equity

given it comes with a 5-8 year repurchase option at a 6.5% IRR cap, so a better frame would be a 25% LTV loan at 6.5% interest - and that’s if you believe in the $10B number (I don’t). We’ll see at the open if investors view this as a true valuation mark…

… or if they call it for what it is: good financial engineering paired with ridiculous marketing.

Insolvencies rise in Q2, remain unconcerning

Consumer insolvencies edged higher sequentially in Q2, with June’s print rising 12% versus last year…

led by Ontario and British Columbia, whose continued weakness was tempered by a small increase in Alberta.

On a relative basis, the headline number remains unconcerning - with insolvencies as a percentage of the 15+ population sitting just above long-term averages.

ALTIUS MINERALS

Altius Minerals (ALS) reported strong Q2 results, with adj. EBITDA margins expanding to 78% on the back of record royalty revenue of $30M - which is up 137% Y/Y and should continue…

as mine expansions, restarts, and new builds drive near-term growth - with the lithium segment being the main contributor.

Contribution from renewable royalties should pick up too, with the company’s 50% stake in GBR set to benefit from the delivery of 2.3 GW under construction and strong deal flow…

… which Altius has plenty of capacity to fund, with $500M of available liquidity. Any new investments would represent upside to our estimates, which we break down in the full report below:

Altius Q2-26 Earnings.pdf

Altius Q2-26 Earnings

644.27 KBPDF File

ON OUR RADAR

H&R REIT (HR-U) announced a $6.7B transaction to split up its real estate - with Blackstone, Crestpoint, and PSP taking a bite out of its industrial footprint…

… the CEO’s family office absorbing its non-core assets, and GO REIT (GO-U) acquiring its residential portfolio for US$2.8B in a deal that would make it the second largest residential REIT on the TSX

… and shift its New York luxury footprint towards the Sunbelt. While there’s a clear rationale for the deal, with management highlighting margin expansion and leverage reduction post-close

the complexity and discounted equity financing introduce more uncertainty than previous resi takeouts.

GAINERS & LOSERS

Aurora (ACB)
1D %
YTD %
5.03
24.8%
12.8%
Electrovaya (ELVA)
1D %
YTD %
10.18
21.2%
6.1%
AGT Food (AGTF)
1D %
YTD %
19.43
13.0%
8.6%
DATA Comms (DCM)
1D %
YTD %
2.73
12.2%
66.5%
Pet Valu (PET)
1D %
YTD %
20.54
9.3%
26.4%
Neo Materials (NEO)
1D %
YTD %
39.21
11.6%
152.0%

Pet Valu (PET) ripped 9% on the back of its Q2 results, which delivered flat same-store growth as expected

but beat big on the bottom line - with a better promotional mix, supply chain efficiency, and corporate store resales all contributing in the quarter. Margin pressure has been the main source of concern…

so management’s commitment to the full-year guide likely drove some capital back to the name, with PET shares trading near trough multiples.

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About Bullpen: Bullpen Finance Inc. publishes content on Canadian markets and provides paid research coverage of select Canadian issuers. Bullpen is paid in cash by covered issuers, does not accept stock or options, does not hold positions in covered securities, and does not conduct investment banking business. Bullpen and LodeRock Advisors Inc. are affiliated; LodeRock provides investor relations services to issuers, some of whom are covered by Bullpen Research. When a post discusses a covered issuer, a specific disclosure appears at the top of the post. This post is published for general information purposes. It is not personalized investment advice and is not tailored to any individual reader’s circumstances. Bullpen is not a registered investment adviser or dealer. For full disclosures, including analyst certification, jurisdictional statements, and conflict of interest policies, please see our Legal & Disclosures section on our website.

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