New home prices fell less than expected in June, inching down 0.1% versus estimates for a 0.2% decline…

… on improving prices in the prairies and Ontario, which have been areas of weakness in previous prints.

Combined with improving new unit absorption, June has been one of the better months for housing data in some time - let’s see if it can continue.

WSP Global (WSP) confirmed its interest in Arcadis, offering ~$7.5B to take the company out at a near-50% premium or ~10x NTM EBITDA - a hair above where WSP currently trades.

With the prospective financing package split evenly between cash and equity, management still expects high single digit accretion - with that figure climbing to mid-teens after synergies…

… as costs are stripped out from their overlapping geographic footprints.

Like its recent $4.5B acquisition of TRC, Arcadis would accelerate WSP’s push into private markets if closed (big IF)…

… and would take its YTD M&A total to nearly $12B, roughly five times greater than its previous peak in 2022. While the company’s scale enables it…

… our sense is that it’s a deliberate bet, with the value of once siloed proprietary data being unlocked by the application of artificial intelligence.

Industrial product prices fell 1.4% M/M in June, sinking 100 bps more than expected…

… on the back of a 9% decline in energy product prices, which we called out last month as the obvious byproduct of a ceasefire in Iran…

… given the impact on crude products, which fell nearly 14% sequentially. With a peace deal looking unlikely now, the category should be less of a drag in July - revealing strength in other areas like lumber…

… which posted its sixth straight increase and should continue, with prices up 7% MTD as wildfires impact mill operations.

D-BOX Technologies (DBO) was up 9% after getting a foot in the door at Marcus, America’s 4th largest circuit with 975 theatres across 77 locations.

While we assume the initial six screens represent roughly 0.5% of top line, the strong bid reflects expectations for future penetration - which would show up in entertainment, royalty revenue, and DBO’s unit economics…

… as the company grows beyond its fixed overhead and adds recurring high margin royalty streams with each installation.

The 9% move implies an expansion into another ~100 screens, but investors are likely expecting more than that…

… with DBO’s multiple testing new highs and the stock up nearly 300% over the past year.

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