With Canada Day Wednesday and US markets closed Friday, it should be a light week. We’ll play it by ear, but in all likelihood the next Morning Meeting you get from us will be on Monday. Enjoy the time off! 🍻

Yesterday was a historic moment for the Canadian men’s team…

… and with the last World Cup driving a >10% increase in bar and restaurant spend, a number of Canadian companies could benefit too. Boston Pizza (BPF-U) is an easy choice, whose same-store growth has been hanging in there…

… while SIR Royalty (SRV-U) is an under the radar pick, with ~60% of its revenue tied to 35 Jack Astor’s locations in the GTA (it also owns Loose Moose & Duke’s… IYKYK).

If the 2010 Winter Olympics are a good precedent, any World Cup windfall these companies see should be short-lived…

… leaving them to contend with what’s been a challenging environment for drinking in recent years.

With their YTD performance roughly on par with the index, let’s see how they perform in the back half of the year.

Preliminary estimates for May are calling for a 1.1% rise in manufacturing sales, the fourth straight sequential increase…

… led by motor vehicles and chemical products, which have been a consistent driver of PPI since the Iran conflict began.

Given those two categories don’t fully translate to wholesale sales, early expectations are for a 0.7% decline - the first in the last four months.

Despite a 3% increase in capital gains tax, Q1’s federal tax revenue posted its largest decline in over five years…

… driven by an 18% drop in GST linked to the carbon tax removal. That pushed the general government deficit ($34B) to 2.1% of nominal GDP…

… and the resulting 4% bump in government net debt to fund it pegs the new $1.5T total at 46% of GDP.

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