Lest we forget. Today, we pause to honour and remember those who served and sacrificed for our freedom.

Just a month after Cenovus bought Athabasca for $5.7B, we’ve got more heavy oil consolidation - with Strathcona (SCR) acquiring Greenfire in a $2.8B deal which adds 30% to production…

… and 40% to reserves, while increasing the pro-forma entity’s reserve life index to 54 years (the longer the duration the better).

With $2.8B of tax pools and $75M of run-rate synergies, there’s a clear financial rationale to the deal (which we expected)…

… but the real benefit lies in its enhanced scale, which gives Strathcona the firepower to chase larger capital projects like its $3B Northern Express partnership with CN Rail. If approved, it would send 250K barrels per day to BC’s northern coast…

… increasing Asian market access together with the Pacific Link pipeline, though it still has the tanker ban to deal with.

VersaBank (VBNK) added another ~5% since hitting its US$1B SRP funding target early, adding $969M in assets Q/Q (above our estimates)…

… driven by demand for the real-time program, which bodes well for its US$3B 2027 funding target and for earnings contribution from south of the border.

With its US operation being the bank’s most efficient by a wide margin…

… continued outperformance in the growth of VersaBank’s SRP assets would drive upside versus our forecasts and should translate to ROE acceleration…

… as the operating leverage in its soon-to-be home market enables VBNK to earn more on its equity capital, driving growth in book value per share and multiple expansion.

GFL Environmental (GFL) fell 7% after concluding its review with no deal, giving back some of the post-rumour run…

… but not all of it, as investors refocus on GFL’s strong solid waste platform…

… with a straightforward path to scale through a combination of organic growth and tuck-in M&A, which adds density to its existing network and improves margins.

Management expects its go-forward strategy will double FCF per share over the next five years - supporting that growth, leverage reduction plans, and an active buyback program…

… which the company has never had the financial capacity for in the past.

Chorus Aviation (CHR) ran 8% on its Q3 results, which beat clean and came with a guide for the company’s non-CPA revenue to roughly double between 2025-2027…

… on a combination of 5-10% organic growth and recent acquisitions. Given the segment runs at higher margins than Chorus’ total business…

… that should support continued buyback activity, given leverage sits comfortably within management’s 1-2x target range.

Future M&A could also be on the table, with an active opportunity pipeline…

… and a multiple that could support equity issuance if necessary, assuming it can find targets at sub-5x EBITDA like its recent $40M SkyCare deal.

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