Industrial product prices rose 2.7% in January, crushing expectations for a 0.2% gain and reversing last month’s decline…

… led by an 18% increase non-ferrous metal products - with gold, silver, and copper all having a huge month.

That translated to an 8% jump in raw materials costs, with metal ores rising nearly 16% and crude products gaining 5%…

… the first up month in the last seven, driven by both internal and external pressures on Iran - who accounts for ~5% of the world’s oil production…

… with much of that (1.6M bpd) heading for international markets (mostly China). Given the US has cranked up the pressure in recent weeks…

… the theme could have staying power, acting as a tailwind to February’s print.

December’s retail sales were slightly better than the expected 0.5% drawdown, falling 0.4%…

… with a 1.6% decline at motor vehicles and parts retailers leading the way on an absolute basis, offsetting a near-3% increase at fuel vendors.

On a regional basis, results were weaker in all key provinces except Quebec…

… which should reverse in January, with preliminary estimates calling for a 1.5% gain.

I’m keeping an eye on Mexico, which saw widespread violence after cartel leader “El Mencho” was killed. If the market reads this as tourism-negative, airlines could be weak today (already dealing with Cuba) - Transat (TRZ) in particular.

Superior (SPB) dropped over 18% Friday after releasing a Q4 beat, owing to a 2026 guide that landed well below expectations - calling for 2% EBITDA growth…

… which is anchored by continued pressure in its CNG business (4-9% decline expected). With slower profit growth comes slower leverage reduction, so management raised its 2027 target by 0.5x…

… and is calling for limited improvement through this year, which could keep a lid on SPB’s multiple until catalysts get closer.

Sprott (SII) was up 10% on the back of its Q4 results, which blew estimates out of the water and came with another step change higher for AUM…

… as investors look to increase their exposure to metals. Listed products were the primary driver, adding $10B Q/Q on a combo of price appreciation and inflows…

… that have potential to keep ramping, with management highlighting the positive feedback loop created as each fund scales…

… which should drive margin expansion, specifically in its ETFs. The market is counting on it, with higher forward EBITDA expectations moderating SII’s multiple.

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