Disclosure: Bullpen receives compensation from Altius Minerals for research coverage.

President Trump announced that the US is working on a deal to import potash from Belarus…

… and specifically mentioned its cost-competitiveness with Canada. The deal has been met with skepticism as even prior to sanctions, US imports of Belarusian potash was minimal.

In parallel, the Belarusian president acknowledged that while discussions are underway, the country’s output is mostly contracted for the year.

The search for volume is understandable given the US imports over 90% of its potash consumption…

… but with the EU maintaining its sanctions and Belarus being landlocked, reaching the US market becomes a logistical nightmare. Conversely, Canada is connected to the US through a sophisticated freight network…

… enabling efficient export of potash mined from Saskatchewan. That bodes well for producers like Nutrien (NTR), who owns six potash mines in Saskatchewan responsible for ~20% of global capacity…

… and for Altius Minerals (ALS), which holds royalties on five Nutrien potash mines and another from Mosaic, among other key mineral royalties in its portfolio.

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