Population growth stalled in Q2, with less than 50K added. At 0.1%, Q/Q growth hit an all-time low for a second quarter (ex-COVID) but improved slightly over the prior period…

… supported by immigration, which has held steady in recent quarters at ~100K - nearing the government’s 400K per year target.

The trend continues in the non-permanent category, which posted its third straight outflow and the second largest on record…

… which should keep going, with the current total sitting ~940K above Carney’s 5% goal. That should take a bite out of Canada’s younger demographic…

… driving a re-acceleration of population aging and reinforcing the M&A ambitions for senior living names like Chartwell (CSH) and Sienna (SIA).

Payroll employment gained 0.1% in July, with gains in healthcare, education, and finance offsetting continued weakness in manufacturing…

… but that growth came at the expense of job vacancies, which fell 4% M/M and are off 15% versus last year.

Combined with the latest unemployment print, this hardly inspires confidence in the labour market - with 3.3 job seekers per available seat, the highest since 2017 excluding the pandemic.

Lithium Americas (LAC) has more than doubled since word broke that Trump wants up to 10% of the company, whose Thacker Pass project is the largest planned lithium mine in the West. If recent deals with Intel and MP Materials are any indication…

… this one isn’t really up for discussion - especially considering its $2.3B DOE loan hangs in the balance.

STEP Energy Services (STEP) rose 27% on an upgraded $5.50/share bid from ARC Financial, after its previous $5 bid fell through. At nearly 3.5x NTM EBITDA, the deal values STEP well above the range public markets are willing to pay…

… and it isn’t all that surprising, given the weak oil price environment that’s driven M&A activity historically. STEP management has pointed to the impact cheap barrels have had on both client activity and margins…

… which has shown up in the financials.

I called out STEP as one of two future targets after Trican’s $230M acquisition on a thesis that remains the same today: energy services names need to get bigger or get bought to weather the storm. The other one? Calfrac (CFW) - still public…

… but there’s sharks in the water! Let’s see.

Flagging the buying at Aya Gold & Silver (AYA), which comes after a short report alleged the company is inflating resource estimates. Management denied the claims, and the buying is a vote of confidence that I’m sure GSY shareholders are waiting for.

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