The unemployment rate hit 7.1% in August, the highest level in over nine years ignoring COVID - and worse than expectations for a M/M rise to 7.0%.

After roughly 50K full-time jobs lost in July, part-time employment was the primary driver this month - shedding 60K jobs…

… across multiple industries - led by technical services, transportation, and manufacturing. While the former two have had little YTD variation, manufacturing employment has dropped over 3%…

… which is showing up in regional unemployment rates - with areas like Windsor (11.1%) and Oshawa (9.0%) showing large gains in joblessness.

Combined with continued elevation in unemployment duration…

… and downward trending workforce participation, this print has increased the odds for a mid-September rate cut to ~90%.

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