TSX
1D %
YTD %
27,761.27
0.6%
11.5%
TSXV
1D %
YTD %
789.05
0.3%
27.8%
S&P 500
1D %
YTD %
6,340.00
0.1%
8.0%
NASDAQ
1D %
YTD %
21,242.7
0.4%
10.2%
US 10Y
1D
YTD
4.26
3 bps
31 bps
DJIA
1D %
YTD %
43,968.64
0.5%
3.7%
CA 10Y
1D
YTD
3.40
1 bp
18 bps
CAD/USD
1D %
YTD %
0.728
0.0%
4.6%

WHAT'S ON TAP

  • PMI shows signs of recovery

  • Manulife’s $1B private credit push

  • Employee front-runs 500 PRs

  • Mullen Chairman makes a rare buy

  • CMG falls 20% on dividend cut

HOT OFF THE PRESS

PMI shows signs of economic recovery

The Ivey Purchasing Managers Index came in hotter than expectations at 55.8, the largest M/M expansion of purchasing activity since last July.

The strength was likely driven by restocking, as an increase in deliveries contributed to an inventory draw during the month.

Employment also improved, following contractions in three of the last four months amid challenging labour market conditions.

All in, a strong print - and one that’s supportive of a rebound in GDP for July.

Manulife’s $1B private credit push

Alongside its earnings results, Manulife (MFC) announced the ~$1.2B acquisition of a 75% stake in Comvest - a U.S. private credit platform with ~$20B of AUM. Compared to MFC’s ~$1T under management, the transaction is small

but meaningful in the context of private credit, where MFC only has $5B today. Management likes the category, highlighting expected market runway…

… this is a market that’s expected to double in the next 4 to 5 years in terms of potential opportunity.

Paul Lorentz (CEO of GWAM) - MFC Q2’25 call

… and distribution opportunities across MFC’s global footprint as factors in favour of continued AUM growth.

The market seems unconvinced for now, sending the stock down 4% - as sub-1% EPS accretion from the deal likely has investors wondering: why doesn’t Manulife just buy back stock (~2% accretion)?

My take: this is a more defensive acquisition than management is letting on. Private credit is hot and Manulife is late to the party. If clients have to get that exposure elsewhere…

… private credit is a fast-growing and in high demand strategy from our clients.

Philip Witherington (CEO) - MFC Q2’25 call

… the door opens for the new manager to pull additional capital away from MFC. The deal rationale isn’t near-term accretion, it’s avoiding the longer-term dilution that comes from not meeting client needs.

FUNNY BUSINESS

A software developer at a newswire service is going to jail for front-running 500 press releases. Either it started innocently, and seeing winner after winner pass through their system eroded his willpower

… or he knew the money was there and took a page out of Matt Damon’s book in ‘The Departed’… I don’t know which would be funnier.

INSIDER TRANSACTIONS

Insider Company Value
David Malinauskas Toromont (TIH) $517K
Joel Couture Toromont (TIH) $598K
Karen Gosse Fortis (FTS) $238K
Carol-Ann P.T. Agnico (AEM) $890K
Joan Sproul FirstService (FSV) $1.1M
Wade Burton Fairfax (FFH) $15.5M
George Patrick VersaBank (VBNK) $153K
Murray Mullen Mullen (MTL) $1.3M

Flagging the Mullen Group (MTL) buy here, as Murray (Chairman) doesn’t pull the trigger often, but he’s called the bottom pretty well historically:

ON OUR RADAR

GAINERS & LOSERS

Lundin (LUN)
1D %
YTD %
15.65
10.5%
26.5%
Comp. Group (CMG)
1D %
YTD %
6.41
18.3%
39.8%
Enerflex (EFX)
1D %
YTD %
12.22
10.3%
14.6%
GDI Facility (GDI)
1D %
YTD %
29.27
13.4%
25.4%
goeasy (GSY)
1D %
YTD %
203.82
9.6%
22.3%
Fortuna (FVI)
1D %
YTD %
8.55
12.0%
38.6%

Computer Modelling Group (CMG) fell nearly 20% on earnings, which came up short on both revenue and profit with organic revenue growth down 15% Y/Y, leading to margin compression and a lower full-year guide.

With management pointing to the loss of a long-time client and cutting the dividend 80% to support its acquisition pipeline, this feels like a kitchen sink quarter. Down 40% YTD, let’s see where CMG finds its floor.

EARNINGS

YESTERDAY’S EARNINGS
Company Actual Consensus
🇨🇦 BCE Inc. (BCE) 0.63 0.71
🇨🇦 Canadian Tire (CTC) 3.57 3.93
🇨🇦 MDA Space (MDA) 0.38 0.30
🇨🇦 Maple Leaf (MFI) 0.56 0.46
🇨🇦 ATS Corp. (ATS) 0.41 0.42
🇨🇦 AtkinsRealis (ATRL) 0.80 0.72
🇨🇦 Cascades (CAS) 0.19 0.19
🇨🇦 Keyera (KEY) 0.35 0.40
🇨🇦 Stella-Jones (SJ) 1.91 1.78
🇨🇦 Enerflex (EFX) 179M 145M
🇨🇦 Brookfield (BN) 0.88 -
🇨🇦 Quebecor (QBR) 605M 610M
🇨🇦 Leon's (LNF) 0.46 0.46
🇨🇦 Jamieson (JWEL) 0.40 0.35
🇨🇦 Altus Group (AIF) 0.50 0.35
🇨🇦 Power Corp. (POW) 1.38 1.29
🇨🇦 OpenText (OTEX) 0.97 0.83
🇨🇦 Lassonde (LAS-A) 5.03 5.00
🇨🇦 Saputo (SAP) 0.40 0.38
🇨🇦 Russell (RUS) 1.07 1.03
🇨🇦 Trisura (TSU) 0.76 0.71
🇨🇦 Sun Life (SLF) 1.79 1.77
🇨🇦 High Liner (HLF) 0.38 0.41
🇨🇦 Pembina (PPL) 0.62 0.66
🇨🇦 Wheaton (WPM) 0.63 0.59
🇨🇦 CES Energy (CEU) 0.18 0.18
TODAY’S EARNINGS
Company Time Consensus
🇨🇦 Docebo (DCBO) AM 0.22
🇨🇦 Emera (EMA) AM 0.65
🇨🇦 Algonquin (AQN) AM 0.04
🇨🇦 dentalcorp (DNTL) AM 0.16
🇨🇦 Boralex (BLX) AM 0.07
🇨🇦 Constellation (CSU) PM 21.10

ECONOMIC DATA

YESTERDAY’S ECONOMIC RELEASES
Release Actual Consensus
🇨🇦 Ivey PMI 55.8 55.2
🇺🇸 Jobless Claims 226K 221K
🇺🇸 Continuing Claims 1,974K 1,950K
🇺🇸 Consumer Credit Change 7.4B 7.0B
TODAY’S ECONOMIC RELEASES
Release Time Consensus
🇨🇦 Unemployment Rate 8:30AM 7.0%
🇨🇦 Employment Change 8:30AM 13.5K

COMMODITIES

WTI Crude
1D %
YTD %
63.70
1.0%
11.3%
Gold
1D %
YTD %
3,399.87
0.9%
29.6%
Nat Gas
1D %
YTD %
3.07
0.1%
14.6%
Silver
1D %
YTD %
38.27
1.1%
32.5%
Lumber
1D %
YTD %
652.98
2.5%
18.6%
Copper
1D %
YTD %
4.40
0.1%
10.5%
Soybean
1D %
YTD %
971.75
1.1%
2.8%
Aluminum
1D %
YTD %
2,608.85
0.6%
2.1%
Corn
1D %
YTD %
384.67
1.3%
16.0%
Wheat
1D %
YTD %
518.26
1.9%
6.0%

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