GDP falls for second month straight, with recovery in sight

Eli Rodney
July 31, 2025
GDP

GDP fell 0.1% M/M in May, in-line with analyst expectations for a second straight monthly contraction driven by weakness in goods-producing industries.

The slowdown was felt most in resource extraction, public administration, and retail trade - as refinery maintenance, a post-election air pocket, and auto tariffs all put pressure on results for the month.

The print wasn’t all bad though, with inventory builds supporting a manufacturing rebound…

… home resale activity driving the second straight monthly gain in real estate…

… and a broad-based recovery in transportation. Combined with an expected recovery in retail sales, early estimates for June call for a 0.1% rebound in GDP.

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