TSX
1D %
YTD %
28,854.01
0.1%
3.8%
TSXV
1D %
YTD %
678.55
0.0%
9.9%
S&P 500
1D %
YTD %
5,842.01
0.0%
0.5%
NASDAQ
1D %
YTD %
18,925.73
0.3%
1.8%
US 10Y
1D
YTD
4.53
7 bps
4 bps
DJIA
1D %
YTD %
41,859.09
0.0%
1.3%
CA 10Y
1D
YTD
3.38
1 bp
15 bps
CAD/USD
1D %
YTD %
0.721
0.0%
3.8%

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WHAT'S ON TAP

  • New home prices post biggest monthly drop in >10 years

  • Crude oil weighs on industrial product prices

  • OpenAI spends $6.5B on Jony Ive’s AI hardware startup

  • CPP in the spotlight with high U.S. allocation & no more net-zero target

  • GOOS jumps nearly 30% in two days, MDA closes $280M deal

  • TD beats expectations, cuts 2% of its workforce

HOT OFF THE PRESS

New home prices drop most in >10 years

The housing market is cooling, with new home prices falling 0.4% M/M (down 0.6% Y/Y), well below analyst estimates of a 0.1% gain. Other than a similar drop in October, home prices haven’t posted a bigger monthly decline in over 10 years.

Clearly rates aren’t having a stimulative impact and with underlying inflation picking up, it’s possible that they won’t be a “pullable lever” at all in the near-term.

Regional pricing trends held steady for the most part, with continued struggles in BC and Ontario partly offset by strength in Quebec and the Atlantic provinces…

but look at the Prairies! That’s the third straight monthly drop, as interprovincial migration tailwinds moderate…

… and the market continues to add supply.

Not a great environment shift for Boardwalk (BEI-U), as we highlighted in our Q1 residential REIT recap.

Crude oil weighs on industrial PPI

We got softer-than-expected input/output PPI data yesterday, with industrial product prices down nearly 1% M/M on the back of a 3% drop in raw materials.

Crude oil was the culprit, with energy product prices falling over 8% in April - more than offsetting a similar jump in metals.

While still up 2% Y/Y, a continued lull in oil should keep pressure on industrial PPI.

FUNNY BUSINESS

While no official product details have been released, we did get a 10-minute video that can be best described as Lebron’s “taking my talents to South Beach” announcement for nerds (ourselves included). Plus this legendary launch photo…

It’s a big bet, and given the talent density of the acquired team it could very well pay off… or if you’re into conspiracy theories, a series of huge all stock deals could dilute the influence of the non-profit parent company.

INSIDER TRANSACTIONS

Insider Company Value
Stephen Peacher Sun Life (SLF) $7.0M
Todd Burdick Peyto (PEY) $416K
Bruce Robertson Morguard (MRG) $2.0M
Michael Wallace Fairfax (FFH) $798K
Kieran Holm Finning (FTT) $228K
Clayton Bock Stantec (STN) $125K
Chris Emerson Pan American (PAAS) $201K

Flagging the Pan American (PAAS) sale, which comes just days after the company acquired MAG Silver for more than $2B. Probably nothing though, as Chris (SVP of exploration and geology) has only sold stock as an insider.

ON OUR RADAR

CPP upped its U.S. allocation at the expense of its Canadian exposure, a move that’s getting some public scrutiny!

GAINERS & LOSERS

MDA Space (MDA)
1D %
YTD %
28.16
7.6%
4.6%
Computer Mod. (CMG)
1D %
YTD %
6.75
17.7%
36.6%
Canada Goose (GOOS)
1D %
YTD %
15.84
7.1%
9.7%
Lightspeed (LSPD)
1D %
YTD %
13.74
8.0%
37.3%
Firan (FTG)
1D %
YTD %
9.60
5.2%
31.7%
Velan (VLN)
1D %
YTD %
16.05
7.8%
48.6%

MDA Space (MDA) was up 7% following its amended merger agreement with SatixFy Communications, where it sweetened the pot to $280M (was ~$190M) to fend off competing bids. The stock has rode the wave of a number of positive defense headlines, recovering all of its fall after the NASA budget cuts and then some.

Canada Goose (GOOS) is up nearly 30% since its 8% top-line and 19% EBITDA beat two days ago. With strong short interest leading into the quarter (>20% of the float), short covering may be more responsible for the price action than results.

Lightspeed Commerce (LSPD) dropped 8% despite hitting its $1.1B FY revenue target, with a massive $556M goodwill impairment charge. Management highlighted economic uncertainty affecting small retailers and the company’s valuation, resulting in the repurchase of 12% of outstanding shares in the past year.

EARNINGS

YESTERDAY’S EARNINGS
Company Actual Consensus
🇨🇦 TD Bank (TD) 1.97 1.78
🇨🇦 Lightspeed (LSPD) 0.10 0.11
🇺🇸 Intuit (INTU) 11.70 10.90
🇺🇸 Workday (WDAY) 2.23 2.01
🇺🇸 Autodesk (ADSK) 2.29 2.15
🇺🇸 Ross Stores (ROST) 1.47 1.44

Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) finished the day up more than 3% on the back of a Q2 beat, with strong results out of the wealth and wholesale business and a build in provisions - a continuation of what we saw from the banks in Q1. The company also announced a ~2% headcount reduction, as part of its restructuring.

In January, we highlighted the name as a wait and see story, drawing comparisons to regulatory issues that kept a lid on Wells Fargo stock for years. Up nearly 15% since then, the call has been wrong so far - but it still gives important context to the story for those that need a refresh.

ECONOMIC DATA

YESTERDAY’S ECONOMIC RELEASES
Release Actual Consensus
🇨🇦 Business Barometer 40 -
🇨🇦 PPI M/M -0.8% -0.5%
🇨🇦 Raw Materials M/M -3.0% -2.2%
🇨🇦 PPI Y/Y 2.0% -
🇨🇦 Raw Materials Y/Y -3.6% -
🇺🇸 Jobless Claims 227K 230K
🇺🇸 Continuing Claims 1,903K 1,890K
🇺🇸 S&P Composite PMI 52.1 -
🇺🇸 S&P Mftg. PMI 52.3 50.1
🇺🇸 S&P Services PMI 52.3 50.8
🇺🇸 Existing Home Sales 4.0M 4.1M
TODAY’S ECONOMIC RELEASES
Release Time Consensus
🇨🇦 Retail Sales M/M 8:30AM 0.7%
🇨🇦 Retail Sales Ex-Auto 8:30AM 0.0%
🇺🇸 New Home Sales 10:00AM 0.69M

COMMODITIES

WTI Crude
1D %
YTD %
60.89
1.1%
15.2%
Gold
1D %
YTD %
3,290.20
0.9%
25.4%
Nat Gas
1D %
YTD %
3.28
2.6%
8.9%
Silver
1D %
YTD %
33.04
1.2%
14.4%
Lumber
1D %
YTD %
596.11
0.1%
8.3%
Copper
1D %
YTD %
4.64
0.4%
16.7%
Soybean
1D %
YTD %
1,068.01
0.5%
6.9%
Aluminum
1D %
YTD %
2,460.20
0.7%
3.8%
Corn
1D %
YTD %
462.87
0.4%
1.1%
Wheat
1D %
YTD %
544.47
0.9%
1.3%

Disclaimer: Bullpen Finance Inc. is not a registered investment advisor. The information provided is for educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. See our terms of service for more information.