TSX
1D %
YTD %
34,290.73
0.4%
7.6%
TSXV
1D %
YTD %
1,017.71
1.2%
2.5%
S&P 500
1D %
YTD %
7,400.96
0.2%
7.9%
NASDAQ
1D %
YTD %
26,088.20
0.7%
12.3%
US 10Y
1D
YTD
4.47
5 bps
29 bps
DJIA
1D %
YTD %
49,760.56
0.1%
2.9%
CA 10Y
1D
YTD
3.60
6 bps
16 bps
CAD/USD
1D %
YTD %
0.730
0.1%
0.2%

WHAT'S ON TAP

HOT OFF THE PRESS

Insolvencies rise to post-2008 highs

Consumer insolvencies are nearing post-2008 highs, with March filings up 10% Y/Y…

led by Ontario and British Columbia, where the housing and labour markets have faced the most pressure recently.

While we’re watching it, the doom and gloom around the print is currently baseless - with a population-adjusted figure sitting in-line with the long-term average.

BMO sells transportation finance unit

Bank of Montreal (BMO) has parted ways with its $14.5B transportation & vendor finance loan book, which was de-emphasized over recent years

given its outsized contribution to provisioning activity, which sits consistently above 10% of total commercial provisions while representing ~3% of the book.

Despite some recent signs of a trucking recovery, impaired loans in the segment have been grinding higher since 2023

so the $900M goodwill writedown tied to the sale isn’t surprising, with management deciding the ROE impact from capital redeployment is worth taking the bath next quarter.

ON OUR RADAR

GAINERS & LOSERS

Exchange Income (EIF)
1D %
YTD %
104.36
6.6%
27.3%
Pet Valu (PET)
1D %
YTD %
17.00
14.0%
39.1%
Ensign (ESI)
1D %
YTD %
4.36
6.1%
71.7%
Chemtrade (CHE-U)
1D %
YTD %
16.59
9.8%
12.5%
Trican (TCW)
1D %
YTD %
7.58
5.7%
27.6%
Docebo (DCBO)
1D %
YTD %
23.92
8.5%
21.6%

Pet Valu (PET) shed 14% on its Q1, which came with flat same-store sales

… and missed big on margins, with pressure from higher fuel costs and value-seeking behaviour from consumers. With management expecting these trends to persist, the margin guide was taken lower

and investors are likely cautious on whether that holds, given the series of negative revisions in recent quarters.

Chemtrade Logistics (CHE-U) fell 10% after a Q1 miss, driven by weaker pricing and higher sulfur costs

which pressured margins and should continue, with a four-week turnaround at its North Vancouver facility ($15M EBITDA impact) limiting the offset from better caustic soda pricing in Q2. That could keep a lid on valuation near-term…

… until investors get line of sight to fundamental improvement in the back half or progress on its rezoning application.

EARNINGS

YESTERDAY’S EARNINGS
Company Actual Consensus
🇨🇦 George Weston (WN) 0.91 0.98
🇨🇦 Pet Valu (PET) 0.31 0.37
🇨🇦 Trican (TCW) 0.14 0.16
🇨🇦 Peyto (PEY) 0.82 0.80
🇨🇦 Power Corp. (POW) 1.43 1.43
🇨🇦 AGT Foods (AGTF) 0.15 -0.09
🇨🇦 Freehold (FRU) 0.21 0.18
🇨🇦 Altius (ALS) 19.8 16.1M
🇨🇦 Finning (FTT) 1.02 1.02
🇨🇦 goeasy (GSY) -1.90 -1.01
🇨🇦 Algoma Steel (ASTL) -1.42 -1.15
🇨🇦 Franco-Nevada (FNV) 2.38 2.07
TODAY’S EARNINGS
Company Time Consensus
🇨🇦 Hydro One (H) AM 0.64
🇨🇦 Boyd Group (BYD) AM 0.56
🇨🇦 Manulife (MFC) PM 1.09
🇨🇦 Superior (SPB) PM 0.66
🇨🇦 Stantec (STN) PM 1.29
🇨🇦 G Mining (GMIN) PM 0.51
🇨🇦 Northland (NPI) PM 0.52
🇨🇦 Bird (BDT) PM 0.19

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About Bullpen: Bullpen Finance Inc. publishes content on Canadian markets and provides paid research coverage of select Canadian issuers. Bullpen is paid in cash by covered issuers, does not accept stock or options, does not hold positions in covered securities, and does not conduct investment banking business. Bullpen and LodeRock Advisors Inc. are affiliated; LodeRock provides investor relations services to issuers, some of whom are covered by Bullpen Research. When a post discusses a covered issuer, a specific disclosure appears at the top of the post. This post is published for general information purposes. It is not personalized investment advice and is not tailored to any individual reader’s circumstances. Bullpen is not a registered investment adviser or dealer. For full disclosures, including analyst certification, jurisdictional statements, and conflict of interest policies, please see our Legal & Disclosures section on our website.

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