February’s retail sales rose 0.7%, coming up short of the expected 0.9% increase - but keeping up the momentum from January’s 1.1% lift…

… thanks to a continued recovery in motor vehicle sales and resilience in general merchandise - a category which has steadily grinded higher since the pandemic…

… which tracks to Dollarama’s (DOL) step up in same-store growth over the period.

Health and personal care retailers have seen similar stability, further evidenced by Jamieson’s (JWEL) steady mid-to-high single digit growth in Canada…

… and together, these two less elastic buckets have taken an additional 5% of discretionary spend since 2017.

That’s pushed discretionary wallet share higher in recent years, but we’re starting to see moderation…

… which should be further pressured by elevated crude oil prices, where large swings have historically altered the composition of consumer spending.

The longer that lasts, the more dollars will flow out of non-core discretionary - mimicking the “trade down” we’ve seen from sit-down restaurants to fast-food…

… and showing a consumer that’s not as healthy as the headline data might suggest.