TSX
1D %
YTD %
29,315.23
0.4%
17.7%
TSXV
1D %
YTD %
876.27
1.9%
41.9%
S&P 500
1D %
YTD %
6,606.76
0.1%
12.6%
NASDAQ
1D %
YTD %
22,333.96
0.1%
15.8%
US 10Y
1D
YTD
4.04
1 bp
54 bps
DJIA
1D %
YTD %
45,757.90
0.3%
7.9%
CA 10Y
1D
YTD
3.16
2 bps
7 bps
CAD/USD
1D %
YTD %
0.728
0.3%
4.7%

WHAT'S ON TAP

  • Inflation misses, food accelerates

  • Manufacturing sales jump

  • Housing starts miss, inventory falls

  • Artis pivots with reverse takeover

HOT OFF THE PRESS

Inflation misses, food accelerates

Headline inflation of 1.9% came in just shy of estimates, moving higher from July’s 1.7% but moderating on a core basis…

… with gas prices posting a smaller Y/Y decline than in previous months…

… resulting in a less material slowdown in the transportation category. In the food category, inflation continues to heat up…

… with prices at the counter up 3.5% compared to last August…

… carried by meat prices, which are 7% higher on the back of a 13% jump in the cost of beef. The amount of steak I ate last weekend won’t help the next print.

With this being the last big data point before today’s rate decision, odds of a cut are now over 90%.

Manufacturing sales jump

If there’s any data point in favour of holding rates, it’s manufacturing sales - which gained 2.5% M/M, beating estimates and accelerating from June’s gain thanks to higher activity in transportation equipment and petroleum products.

With the improvement, the inventory-to-sales ratio moved down to 1.72x despite an inventory build…

… and it made its way through to wholesale sales, which rose for the third straight month to $86B.

Housing starts miss, inventory falls

Housing starts missed in August, falling to 246K versus estimates for 278K - down 16% versus July, the first decline in five months.

On a Y/Y basis gains were pretty broad-based, with starts in BC doing the heavy lifting and more than offsetting some slight weakness in Ontario and Alberta.

Unit absorption picked up for a second straight month, indicating the continued slowdown in construction might be helping the housing market find its footing

… which is further supported by the first inventory draw in six months and a flattening out of the time unabsorbed units sit on the market.

FUNNY BUSINESS

Artis REIT (AX-U) has shed 8% since announcing its reverse takeover of RFA Capital which if approved, will result in a new public entity - RFA Financial. Leading up to the deal, Artis had been divesting assets…

… which looks set to continue - as the combined company looks to recycle capital from property sales into loan growth. Tough pill to swallow for shareholders, knowing the best use of their investment is in funding another…

… but as evidenced by the InterRent takeout and H&R review, public markets aren’t paying up for REITs. I’ll wait for more detail before passing judgement.

ON OUR RADAR

GAINERS & LOSERS

Dirtt (DRT)
1D %
YTD %
0.84
18.3%
16.8%
Dye & Durham (DND)
1D %
YTD %
8.81
14.8%
49.9%
GURU (GURU)
1D %
YTD %
5.46
11.9%
298.5%
Orla (OLA)
1D %
YTD %
15.81
10.2%
98.6%
Baytex (BTE)
1D %
YTD %
3.58
9.5%
3.2%
Intermap (IMP)
1D %
YTD %
3.23
6.4%
35.2%

DIRTT Environmental Solutions (DRT) popped 18% on $20M of new deals with existing clients like Google and Alina Health. Management highlighted a $329M backlog in the press release, 6% higher than Q2.

GURU Organic Energy (GURU) extended its post-earnings run to 90%, further closing the gap to larger energy drink peers.

Intermap Technologies (IMP) fell 6% on its filing of a base shelf prospectus that allows it to issue up to $100M of equity in the next ~2 years. With the stock up 40% since Stifel launched coverage in July, it looks like a deal is coming down the pipe.

INSIDER TRANSACTIONS

Insider Company Value
Crissy Rafoss Peyto (PEY) $110K
Derick Czember Peyto (PEY) $184K
Ramon Zanders Topicus (TOI) $1.3M
Ryan Swedburg Eldorado (ELD) $181K
Neil O'Brien Luca (LUCA) $1.1M
Colin Gruending Enbridge (ENB) $285K

EARNINGS

YESTERDAY’S EARNINGS
Company Actual Consensus
🇨🇦 NanoXplore (GRA) -0.06 -0.01

NanoXplore (GRA) missed estimates in Q4 and announced the company’s founder would be stepping down from the CEO seat - could be a tough day of trading.

TODAY’S EARNINGS
Company Time Consensus
🇨🇦 Sangoma (STC) PM 10.7M

ECONOMIC DATA

YESTERDAY’S ECONOMIC RELEASES
Release Actual Consensus
🇨🇦 Housing Starts 246K 278K
🇨🇦 Inflation Y/Y 1.9% 2.0%
🇨🇦 Core Inflation Y/Y 2.6% 2.7%
🇺🇸 Retail Sales M/M 0.6% 0.2%
🇺🇸 Export Prices M/M 0.3% 0.0%
🇺🇸 Import Prices M/M 0.3% -0.1%
🇺🇸 Industrial Prod. M/M 0.1% -0.1%
🇺🇸 Inventories M/M 0.2% 0.2%
TODAY’S ECONOMIC RELEASES
Release Time Consensus
🇨🇦 Foreign Security Buys 8:30AM -1.3B
🇨🇦 BoC Rate Decision 9:45AM 2.5%
🇺🇸 Building Permits 8:30AM 1.37M
🇺🇸 Housing Starts 8:30AM 1.37M
🇺🇸 Fed Rate Decision 2:00PM 4.25%

COMMODITIES

WTI Crude
1D %
YTD %
64.53
1.9%
10.1%
Gold
1D %
YTD %
3,689.62
0.3%
40.6%
Nat Gas
1D %
YTD %
3.12
2.7%
13.2%
Silver
1D %
YTD %
42.53
0.4%
47.3%
Lumber
1D %
YTD %
572.57
2.0%
4.0%
Copper
1D %
YTD %
4.63
0.5%
16.4%
Soybean
1D %
YTD %
1,048.28
0.5%
4.9%
Aluminum
1D %
YTD %
2,714.55
0.4%
6.2%
Corn
1D %
YTD %
428.55
1.3%
6.4%
Wheat
1D %
YTD %
533.77
1.7%
3.2%

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