Disclosure: Bullpen receives compensation from Altius Minerals for research coverage.

TSX
1D %
YTD %
36,107.96
0.5%
13.3%
TSXV
1D %
YTD %
846.00
0.1%
14.8%
S&P 500
1D %
YTD %
7,712.57
0.3%
12.5%
NASDAQ
1D %
YTD %
26,424.82
0.0%
13.7%
US 10Y
1D
YTD
5.12
2 bps
94 bps
DJIA
1D %
YTD %
52,495.88
1.0%
8.5%
CA 10Y
1D
YTD
3.89
7 bps
46 bps
CAD/USD
1D %
YTD %
0.711
0.4%
2.4%

WHAT'S ON TAP

HOT OFF THE PRESS

Inflation rises, core slows on grocery drag

Headline inflation of 3.1% was just under consensus, but up slightly versus August…

… primarily driven by higher gasoline prices (+28% Y/Y)…

… which pushed transportation inflation higher alongside increases in shelter and clothing. Ex-gasoline, inflation would have been 2.2% - moderating from 2.4%…

… on a sequential decline in travel tours and groceries. The price change in grocery stores is notable, given the 1.7% print is the lowest in over two years…

… which could be a negative for grocery stocks (Loblaw, Metro, Empire) if it persists, given the group’s historical relationship between the inflationary backdrop and excess returns over the index.

With the basket trading higher over the last few years and sitting near peak multiples…

… there could be room to the downside if this second straight drag from food inflation is the start of a longer term trend.

Saturn Oil runs 17% on $302M Corex deal

Saturn Oil & Gas (SOIL) jumped 17% on the back of its announced acquisition of Corex Resources for $302M, taking production to 54-56 MBoe/d as it exits 2026…

… and adding to its disciplined acquisition history, with $1.9B deployed across six deals to drive production growth at good prices.

Post-close, oil will command a heavier weighting (~75%) within the portfolio…

… and margins should improve, driven by Corex’s materially higher netbacks and management expecting $2.85 per barrel of cost reduction on the acquired assets.

The company expects that will add $192M of run-rate NOI, supporting deleveraging towards sub-1x by the end of 2027…

… alongside the cash flow impact of higher oil prices, which has resulted in multiple expansion alongside Saturn’s maturation into a quality intermediate producer.

ON OUR RADAR

Altius Minerals (ALS) pre-released Q3 expected attributable revenue of $33M, up 11% Q/Q to a new record, driven by strong interconnection deposit financing activity and its recent ARR consolidation…

… which took electricity revenue to ~$13M. It also gave a Project Generation (PG) update, highlighting an $18M increase in its junior equities portfolio to $98M and $5M of net portfolio investment. The value of the book has grown meaningfully in 2026…

… though YTD PG has delivered net cash outflows, with limited monetization activity compared to prior years. This shouldn’t be a concern for investors, as financial results in the segment are lumpy by design…

… and are largely dependent on the team’s priorities, which vary based on business needs and overall market context (learn more about PG here). That said, with recent equity market strength…

… we expect non-core equity monetization could be on the table, reinforcing PG’s core mandate of low-cost royalty generation while being self-sufficient.

GAINERS & LOSERS

Blackberry (BB)
1D %
YTD %
12.45
7.9%
140.4%
Hammond (HPS-A)
1D %
YTD %
225.06
6.1%
41.1%
Ensign (ESI)
1D %
YTD %
4.22
6.6%
66.1%
Anaergia (ANRG)
1D %
YTD %
1.92
5.4%
15.0%
Algoma (ALC)
1D %
YTD %
31.30
5.7%
65.6%
Firan (FTG)
1D %
YTD %
33.11
3.9%
186.7%

Algoma Central (ALC) added 6% on the back of its Q3 pre-release, which showed revenue of $288M (26% growth)…

… on the back of higher freight rates, dry-bulk fleet expansion, and strong grain/construction volumes. Together with a $9M gain on sale from two older ships, earnings look set to climb nearly 40%…

… validating management’s prior decision to raise the dividend by ~50%, which drove a ~30% move in the stock and brought the multiple back to its long-term average.

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About Bullpen: Bullpen Finance Inc. publishes content on Canadian markets and provides paid research coverage of select Canadian issuers. Bullpen is paid in cash by covered issuers, does not accept stock or options, does not hold positions in covered securities, and does not conduct investment banking business. Bullpen and LodeRock Advisors Inc. are affiliated; LodeRock provides investor relations services to issuers, some of whom are covered by Bullpen Research. When a post discusses a covered issuer, a specific disclosure appears at the top of the post. This post is published for general information purposes. It is not personalized investment advice and is not tailored to any individual reader’s circumstances. Bullpen is not a registered investment adviser or dealer. For full disclosures, including analyst certification, jurisdictional statements, and conflict of interest policies, please see our Legal & Disclosures section on our website.

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