The unemployment rate stayed flat at 6.7% in March, below estimates of 6.8%…

… on the back of a small 14K rise in part-time employment and next-to-no change in full-time job creation.

At the industry level, results were mixed…

… and it’s unlikely we’ll see broad-based gains until there’s a meaningful recovery in job vacancies, which remain the bottleneck to lower unemployment…

… and the main driver of higher unemployment duration.

While there’s still a ton of slack in the labour market, a declining participation rate has cushioned the impact on unemployment to an extent…

… driven in part by a continued rise in monthly retirements, which are up 50% since 2012...

… and should continue, given the baby boomer retirement wave still has legs. At the macro level, that should shrink the pool of job seekers…

… and meaningfully shift the composition of consumer spending. Senior living names have been obvious beneficiaries, massively outpacing the index…

… without a worrisome level of multiple expansion, given strong organic growth and M&A from Sienna (SIA), Chartwell (CSH-U), and Extendicare (EXE).

CareRx (CRRX) sits downstream of that dealmaking as the largest pharmacy services provider to the industry, which should improve unit economics…

… and potentially valuation, given the stock trades just above its long-term average.

Next to prescription drugs are vitamins and supplements, where demand becomes more inelastic with age - supporting Jamieson’s (JWEL) Canadian business…

… with upside from higher growth markets like the US and China, where similar demographic setups should drive fundamentals and valuation - given the three-turn discount JWEL currently trades at.

The mobility solutions Savaria (SIS) provides (chair lifts, elevators, etc.) are another non-negotiable, driving steady demand…

… as seniors opt to age in-place, creating the conditions for a re-rate above the company’s long-term average.

Bottom line, the theme has staying power - and a number of Canadian players are poised to print from it.

MTY Food (MTY) was down 4% on its Q1 results, which beat on EPS but missed on the top line - with the tenth straight quarter of negative same-store sales growth…

… driven by continued weakness in the US. That’s weighed on MTY’s valuation…

… which could result in an opportunistic takeout bid, let’s see.

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