Disclosure: Bullpen receives compensation from Altius Minerals for research coverage.
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WHAT'S ON TAP
HOT OFF THE PRESS
Building permits fall 4% to $12.9B
Building permits fell 4% in September, in line with expectations…
… and driven mainly by residential activity (down 6%), with a $479M decline in multi-family intentions out of western Canada (BC/AB) accounting for most of the sequential drop.
The impact from non-residential permitting was muted, with a $172M institutional decline partly offset by a $91M pickup in industrial construction intentions.
Altius prints record Q3 revenue & buys TNR
Altius Minerals (ALS) reported strong Q3 results, with attributable royalty revenue growing 56% Y/Y to a record $33M despite some price pressure and transient production challenges in the lithium segment…
… thanks to contribution from electricity, with a fully consolidated ARR and demand for interconnection financing driving $13M in revenue…
… which looks set to continue in the coming quarters. With renewable developers seeking tax equity alternatives and Altius having ~$500M of liquidity…
… the capital deployment window is open and not just in renewables, with the company announcing its $122M acquisition of TNR Gold alongside results. New investments could bring upside to our ~20% royalty revenue per share CAGR through 2030…
… which should drop more dollars to Altius’ bottom line…
… and warrants a premium multiple in our view, as we outline in the full report below.
ON OUR RADAR
GAINERS & LOSERS
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Fiera Capital (FSZ) fell 22% after taking its dividend to zero, a decision the company made to free up capital for debt reduction…
… and to reinvest in the business, which is contending with declining AUM…
… that’s put pressure on fee income, with negative Y/Y growth in each quarter since the start of 2025. Management indicated they don’t see more outflows in the near-term…
… but investors are likely to wait a few quarters for proof before viewing the current discount as an opportunity.
Cargojet (CJT) ran 10% on its Q3 beat, with 88% Y/Y growth in charter revenue driving a near-30% increase in cargo & passenger…
… which flowed through to profit, more than offsetting margin compression from elevated fuel costs…
… and resulting in stronger free cash flow generation, enabling the company to bring the leverage profile within its target 1.5-2.5x range…
… which could open the door for more buyback activity, with the stock still trading meaningfully below its long-term average multiple.
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