Industrial product prices rose 1.5% in October, the fifth straight sequential gain and well ahead of expectations…

… driven by precious metals and copper, which rose ~10% - the largest M/M jump since 2010 and the tenth in eleven months.

Similar dynamics played out in raw materials, with big gains in metal ores offsetting weakness in crude products…

… which have edged down in eight of the last nine prints.

Extendicare (EXE) announced a splashy $570M acquisition of CBI Home Health, adding $62M of EBITDA at better economics than its base business…

… and showing continued execution of its home health care M&A pipeline, after buying Closing the Gap for $75M in Q3.

Including ~$7M of synergies, the deal math checks out at 8.4x EBITDA - well below current trading which allows EXE to fund $200M of the bid by raising equity…

… and taking on additional debt for the rest, with management pointing to pro-forma leverage of 3.3x that should be paid down in short order…

… opening the door for more activity.

Brookfield (BAM) launched its $100B AI Infrastructure program Wednesday, backed by a dedicated fund it hopes to raise $10B for (see recent $5B Bloom deal). While the headline number is big, BAM is bigger…

... at $580B of fee-bearing capital. With project level debt financing ~70% of most deals, that leaves ~$30B of new equity capital managed in BAM’s infra strategy. Assuming the co-invest portion of that negotiates a 50% haircut on fees…

… you’re looking at a $190M bump to fee-based revenue once fully deployed, 15% of what the infra strategy currently generates (4% of total fee revenue). Not huge, but other Brookfield entities will likely get involved, BIP on the data side…

… BEP on the renewable power and nuclear side. Ironically, that would increase the amount of fees paid back to BN/BAM through a separate agreement - a story for another time…

Altus Group (AIF) jumped 5% on its investor day, where the company unveiled a plan to join the rule of 40 club by 2027…

… by pulling top-line growth and EBITDA margins above 8% and 35% from 2% and 18%, respectively. The new targets seem pretty ambitious…

… but should look more achievable after the sale of its appraisals (signed LOI), development advisory, and select analytics businesses - units that weighed on Q3 results and management views as non-core.

While the divestitures could be catalysts, yesterday’s rally was likely driven by the company’s planned $350M substantial issuer bid. Priced in the $50-57 per share range, the SIB sets a near-term floor on AIF…

… but after that’s filled, attention turns back to execution. If shares don’t react to fundamental improvement, private equity might take a swing - given the growth → profitability transition is their sweet spot.

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