June’s trade picture shaped up as expected, with the fifth straight monthly deficit of $5.9B weakening slightly versus May’s $5.5B…

… driven mainly by a 1.4% increase in imports related to a $2B jump in industrial machinery. The increase was linked to a one-time shipment for an oil project off the east coast - imports would have decreased 2% M/M without it.

Exports posted a second straight monthly gain, up 0.9% on higher prices - offsetting a 0.4% drop in volumes driven by continued pressure from tariffs…

… which are having their intended impact, with passenger vehicle exports falling below $4B for the first time since 2022 and steel & aluminum exports down more than 30% from the average value over the last three years.

Naturally, that’s strained our U.S. trade relationship - with Q2’s export value declining nearly 15% from the two year pre-tariff average…

… which other international exports can only backfill so much, posting their first M/M decline since February.