We got Canadian inflation data yesterday, coming in a tad soft at 1.8% y/y (versus estimates of 1.9%) and -0.4% m/m (in-line with estimates), thanks to the GST/HST holiday that kicked off on December 14th and will last until February 15th.

Analysts think the print is enough to warrant continued easing from the Bank of Canada via a 25 bps cut next week.

We thought about wrapping this here, but that’s not what you read us for! Enjoy a chart dump from the inflation print, highlighting the data beneath the headline results (black = headline number, gray = category number, red = sub-category number):

To start the week, markets breathed a sigh of relief as it seemed Trump would take a more measured approach to tariffs, which quickly reversed monday night as he re-hooked his threat of a 25% broad-based tax on Canadian imports starting February 1st.

Last time Trump was in office he slapped Canada with a 25% and 10% tariff on steel and aluminum, respectively, and Canada responded with tariffs of its own. The dispute crushed Canadian exports of the two metals south of the border (March 2018 to May 2019).

Given the likelihood that history repeats itself, we started our Trump spotlight series by examining the potential impacts across the primary metals value chain.

Looking at tariffs in isolation (not reality, as we highlight in the full piece), the impacts are as follows:

I could have written an entire newsletter based on the soundbites and clips from the Trump inauguration, but for once, I think pictures do it justice.

Putting the spotlight on Innergex and all of its renewable energy peers down big today on news that Trump would halt the momentum in the renewable energy sector, undoing the efforts of the previous administration.

This would be accomplished by rescinding unspent funds from the IRA (renewable project tax credits is one use), halting the sale of offshore wind leases in federal waters, and pausing the issuance of approvals, permits, and loans for onshore and offshore wind.

A developing timeline we’ll keep you updated on.