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WHAT'S ON TAP
Trump walks back his aggressive stance on China
Comparing the Liberal and Conservative spending plans
PPI comes in ahead of expectations, but might not last
Waste management stocks are outperforming, could it continue?
Bitcoin breaks out, gold sells off
TRADE WAR MONITOR
After the hard sell-off on Monday we got more positive China talk out of the Trump administration:
145% is very high and it won’t be that high. It won’t be anywhere near that high. It’ll come down substantially. But it won’t be zero.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent echoed a similar outlook for de-escalation, calling the current situation unsustainable. Funny what a little selling can do…
We’re still not holding our breath for a near-term resolution, as talks between the two superpowers haven’t formally begun, and China is threatening retaliation to any country negotiating U.S. tariff exemptions that disadvantage Chinese interests.
Meanwhile, on the back of tariffs the IMF just cut its 2025 U.S. growth outlook by 90 bps and its Canadian outlook by 60 bps. Ouch.
HOT OFF THE PRESS
How will liberals & conservatives split the pot?
With the election right around the corner, we’re doing a lot of work to answer the question: which companies stand to gain/lose the most from new leadership?
With the conservative spending plan released yesterday, we’re kicking things off with a side-by-side on each party’s approach to real estate, energy, and defense. Check it out!
If the above link doesn’t work, try this: https://www.bullpen.finance/content/97
Industrial PPI tops estimates despite weak oil
Canada's industrial PPI rose 0.5% M/M in March, outpacing consensus at 0.3%. It was the 6th straight monthly increase, as metals and lumber (up 3.8% and 3.1%, respectively) offset a 3.8% drop in energy products.
With crude oil off more than 10% in April, we expect both input and output PPI to moderate further.
Quick take: Is waste still safe?
As they say, one man’s trash is another man’s treasure.
That’s certainly been the case for most waste management names, who’ve grown revenue primarily through acquisitions over the past year.
Combined with strong pricing power, the basket has outperformed markets significantly YTD which begs the question: is waste still a good place to be? We give our quick take in the full bite below.
If the above link doesn’t work, try this: https://www.bullpen.finance/content/98
FUNNY BUSINESS
We’re finding it harder to believe there’s a real plan in place by the day…
INSIDER TRANSACTIONS
| Insider | Company | Value |
|---|---|---|
| David Medilek | K92 Mining (KNT) | $3.0M |
| Cyndi Laval | K92 Mining (KNT) | $258K |
| David Chatyrbok | North West Co. (NWC) | $320K |
| Jorge Durant | Fortuna Mining (FVI) | $6.0M |
| Darlene Gates | MEG Energy (MEG) | $2.2M |
For our YTD insider activity, go here: https://www.bullpen.finance/content/94
ON OUR RADAR
GAINERS & LOSERS
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Precious metals names sold off hard as prospects of a geopolitical cooldown drove some profit taking on what’s been the best trade of the year so far. The exception here is NOVAGOLD Resources (NG), which popped nearly 40% on the acquisition of Barrick’s Donlin Gold project in Alaska for $1.1B.
It was the same news that drove risk assets like Bitcoin materially higher on the day, giving Galaxy Digital (GLXY) an 18% lift.
EARNINGS
YESTERDAY’S EARNINGS
| Company | Actual | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇦 West Fraser (WFG) | 0.46 | 0.36 |
| 🇺🇸 Tesla (TSLA) | 0.27 | 0.41 |
| 🇺🇸 GE Aerospace (GE) | 1.49 | 1.27 |
| 🇺🇸 Verizon (VZ) | 1.19 | 1.15 |
| 🇺🇸 Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) | 1.81 | 1.73 |
| 🇺🇸 Raytheon (RTX) | 1.47 | 1.37 |
| 🇺🇸 Danaher (DHR) | 1.88 | 1.64 |
| 🇺🇸 Chubb (CB) | 3.68 | 3.23 |
| 🇺🇸 Lockheed Martin (LMT) | 7.28 | 6.31 |
| 🇺🇸 Capital One (COF) | 4.06 | 3.65 |
TODAY’S EARNINGS
| Company | Time | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇦 Rogers (RCI-B) | AM | 1.01 |
| 🇨🇦 Mullen (MTL) | AM | 0.22 |
| 🇨🇦 Cargojet (CJT) | PM | 1.03 |
| 🇨🇦 Choice REIT (CHP-U) | PM | 255M |
| 🇨🇦 Aecon (ARE) | PM | -0.09 |
| 🇺🇸 Boston Scientific (BSX) | AM | 0.67 |
| 🇺🇸 AT&T (T) | AM | 0.52 |
| 🇺🇸 Thermo Fisher (TMO) | AM | 5.10 |
| 🇺🇸 CME Group (CME) | AM | 2.81 |
| 🇺🇸 Philip Morris (PM) | AM | 1.61 |
| 🇺🇸 Boeing (BA) | AM | -1.30 |
| 🇺🇸 Texas Instruments (TXN) | PM | 1.10 |
| 🇺🇸 Chipotle (CMG) | PM | 0.28 |
| 🇺🇸 IBM (IBM) | PM | 1.43 |
ECONOMIC DATA
YESTERDAY’S ECONOMIC RELEASES
| Release | Actual | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇦 PPI M/M | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| 🇨🇦 Raw Materials M/M | -1.0% | 0.0% |
| 🇺🇸 Richmond Fed Mftg. | -13 | -6 |
TODAY’S ECONOMIC RELEASES
| Release | Time | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇦 New Home Price M/M | 7:30AM | 0.0% |
| 🇺🇸 Composite PMI Flash | 8:45AM | - |
| 🇺🇸 Manufacturing PMI Flash | 8:45AM | 49.4 |
| 🇺🇸 Services PMI Flash | 8:45AM | 52.8 |
| 🇺🇸 New Home Sales | 9:00AM | 0.68M |
COMMODITIES
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