TSX
1D %
YTD %
25.254.06
0.37%
1.43%
TSXV
1D %
YTD %
679.04
1.77%
9.99%
S&P 500
1D %
YTD %
5,663.94
0.58%
3.49%
NASDAQ
1D %
YTD %
17,928.14
1.07%
7.02%
US 10Y
1D
YTD
4.381
11 bps
19 bps
DJIA
1D %
YTD %
41,368.45
0.62%
2.42%
CA 10Y
1D
YTD
3.227
13 bps
0 bps
CAD/USD
1D %
YTD %
0.718
0.64%
3.21%

WHAT'S ON TAP

  • U.S. strikes first trade deal with the UK, Canadian market reacts

  • BCE finally catches a bid after dividend cut and new funding

  • American pope for Italian pizza market, fair trade?

  • Former RioCan CEO is buying despite $200M HBC loss

  • VNP & LNR up big as worries seem overblown, GSY sells off

  • Oil gets back over $60, energy selling has been huge

HOT OFF THE PRESS

U.S. strikes first trade deal with the UK

It looks like Canada wasn’t the only one looking to do more business with the UK, as Trump announced a deal yesterday that opens up $5B in U.S. export opportunities.

In the context of global trade, this deal isn’t all that important - China is the only one that matters..

… but in the context of Canadian markets, it sets a precedent for the type of deal that could be struck, with the elimination of steel & aluminum tariffs and softening of auto tariffs starting to get priced in.

If more deals come soon, we’d expect the bid to come back quickly to impacted companies. There’s certainly one person who thinks it’s time to get long:

You better go out and buy stock now. Let me tell you, this country will be like a rocket ship that goes straight up.

Donald Trump - UK deal press conference

Bell jumps on dividend cut & new funding

We wrote in February that BCE shares would likely be range bound until it addressed a few elephants in the room, including the dividend policy and acquisition integration.

Both were addressed alongside results, with a near-60% dividend cut and a partnership with PSP for the future growth of Ziply Fiber.

The >$1.5B in financing from PSP and off-balance sheet structure (BCE owns 49% of the JV) should help ease pressure on the leverage profile, which has been a source of concern for investors in recent years.

With shares finishing yesterday up 5%, the door’s been cracked open for institutional money to take another look - we think a management shakeup could kick it down.

To catch up on the story, read this: https://www.bullpen.finance/content/33

FUNNY BUSINESS

Robert Prevost, now Pope Leo XIV, is the first American in history to hold the catholic leadership position after being elected yesterday. Let’s see if Italy gets a special tariff exemption now - they may have to make some concessions…

According to IMARC, the Italian pizza market clocked in at $3.5B last year and is forecasted to exceed $5B by 2033.

Sure, Domino’s tried and failed in the Italian market already, but they were missing one key ingredient - a government mandate to make it succeed. 🤌

INSIDER TRANSACTIONS

Insider Company Value
Donald Clow Extendicare (EXE) $199K
Edward Sonshine RioCan (REI-U) $337K
Alison Reed CGI Inc. (GIB-A) $290K
George Cope CGI Inc. (GIB-A) $1.2M
Gilles Labbe CGI Inc. (GIB-A) $146K
Willard Upchurch Jr. Gildan (GIL) $471K
Rhodri Harries Gildan (GIL) $1.3M
Juan Contreras Gildan (GIL) $231K
Steve Stein Black Diamond (BDI) $231K
Frank Herbert Eldorado (ELD) $337K
Christine Ohta Eldorado (ELD) $152K

Flagging the RioCan buy, which comes from the former CEO - clearly he thinks REI can shrug off the $209M investment loss they took on HBC. We flagged the potential for a write down in March… here’s a quick reminder of the exposure:

Company

HBC Properties

Total Properties

Primaris (PMZ-U)

9

27

RioCan (REI-U)

4

168

Morguard (MRT-U)

2

45

ON OUR RADAR

GAINERS & LOSERS

OceanaGold (OGC)
1D %
YTD %
5.73
12.57%
43.97%
Fortuna (FVI)
1D %
YTD %
7.47
12.53%
21.07%
5N Plus (VNP)
1D %
YTD %
7.43
11.56%
0.68%
ADENTRA (ADEN)
1D %
YTD %
24.80
7.43%
33.21%
Linamar (LNR)
1D %
YTD %
57.99
9.25%
2.11%
goeasy (GSY)
1D %
YTD %
147.81
6.97%
11.34%

5N Plus (VNP) was up 12% on strong results. This is a name we’ve been highlighting as a beneficiary from space investment and the results confirm it, with 37% Y/Y revenue growth on strength in space solar and renewable energy.

Linamar (LNR) ripped 9% on auto optimism and a strong print, with EPS of $2.76 beating estimates of $2.44.

goeasy (GSY) fell 7% on an earnings miss. Revenue of $392M was up 10% Y/Y but missed the street’s $399M, while EPS of $3.53 missed big versus estimates of $4.20 on lower consumer loan yields and increased credit provisioning to buffer against potential loan losses.

EARNINGS

Company Actual Consensus
🇨🇦 BCE Inc. (BCE) 0.69 0.62
🇨🇦 Canadian Tire (CTC-A) 2.00 1.24
🇨🇦 Hydro One (H) 0.60 0.54
🇨🇦 Maple Leaf (MFI) 0.43 0.27
🇨🇦 Shopify (SHOP) 0.25 0.26
🇨🇦 Emera (EMA) 1.28 1.02
🇨🇦 MDA Space (MDA) 0.29 0.26
🇨🇦 Cascades (CAS) 0.13 0.14
🇨🇦 Canadian Natural (CNQ) 1.16 1.08
🇨🇦 Brookfield (BN) 0.98 0.89
🇨🇦 Enerflex (EFX) 0.32 0.29
🇨🇦 Cenovus (CVE) 0.47 0.42
🇨🇦 Altus Group (AIF) 0.19 0.19
🇨🇦 Jamieson (JWEL) 0.14 0.11
🇨🇦 ECN Capital (ECN) 0.03 0.04
🇨🇦 IGM Financial (IGM) 1.00 1.03
🇨🇦 GDI Services (GDI) 1.02 0.23
🇨🇦 Franco Nevada (FNV) 1.07 1.00
🇨🇦 NFI Group (NFI) 0.02 0.03
🇨🇦 Lassonde (LAS-A) 3.60 2.97
🇨🇦 Sun Life (SLF) 1.62 1.71
🇨🇦 Doman Materials (DBM) 0.27 0.10
🇨🇦 Pembina (PPL) 0.80 0.77
🇨🇦 Definity (DFY) 0.79 0.69
🇨🇦 Interfor (IFP) -0.68 -0.28
🇨🇦 Wheaton (WPM) 0.55 0.51
🇨🇦 CES Energy (CEU) 0.20 0.20
TODAY’S EARNINGS
Company Time Consensus
🇨🇦 Air Canada (AC) AM -0.54
🇨🇦 Docebo (DCBO) AM 0.22
🇨🇦 Algonquin (AQN) AM 0.10
🇨🇦 Enbridge (ENB) AM 0.95
🇨🇦 Cineplex (CGX) AM -0.34
🇨🇦 Fiera Capital (FSZ) AM 0.22
🇨🇦 Total Energy (TOT) AM 52.0M

ECONOMIC DATA

YESTERDAY’S ECONOMIC RELEASES
Release Actual Consensus
🇺🇸 Continuing Claims 1,879K 1,890K
🇺🇸 Jobless Claims 228K 230K
🇺🇸 Nonfarm Productivity Q/Q -0.8% -0.7%
🇺🇸 Labour Costs Q/Q 5.7% 5.1%
🇺🇸 Wholesale Inventory M/M 0.4% 0.5%
TODAY’S ECONOMIC RELEASES
Release Time Consensus
🇨🇦 Unemployment Rate 7:30AM 6.8%
🇨🇦 Employment Change 7:30AM 2.5K
🇨🇦 Full Time Change 7:30AM -
🇨🇦 Part Time Change 7:30AM -
🇨🇦 Participation Rate 7:30AM -
🇨🇦 Hourly Wages Y/Y 7:30AM -

COMMODITIES

WTI Crude
1D %
YTD %
60.03
3.37%
16.39%
Gold
1D %
YTD %
3,306.33
2.07%
25.99%
Nat Gas
1D %
YTD %
3.60
0.51%
0.06%
Silver
1D %
YTD %
32.38
0.23%
12.13%
Lumber
1D %
YTD %
555.13
2.78%
0.83%
Copper
1D %
YTD %
4.55
0.98%
14.21%
Soybean
1D %
YTD %
1,035.24
0.46%
3.58%
Aluminum
1D %
YTD %
2,408.75
1.21%
5.78%
Corn
1D %
YTD %
439.98
0.23%
3.94%
Wheat
1D %
YTD %
512.70
1.02%
7.04%

Oil closed back over $60 on the UK/U.S. trade deal. With huge selling in energy over the past year, the tide could turn quickly on this trade if deals keep coming, as highlighted in our look at Canadian oil producers.

Disclaimer: Bullpen Finance Inc. is not a registered investment advisor. The information provided is for educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. See our terms of service for more information.