Looks like Trump wants to reciprocate any tariffs imposed on U.S. goods internationally - a full study by the U.S. administration is underway prior to any implementation, with an April 1^st completion target.

This could have global economic implications, but for today, where is Canada exposed?

Beyond the potential steel and aluminum tariffs coming in mid-March, Canada doesn’t have a ton of exposure - except for the Digital Services Tax, a 3% tax on revenues from various internet businesses over $20M in revenue.

The tax is planned to begin at the end of June but will be applied retroactively to the beginning of 2022. It has been wildly unpopular south of the border even before Trump, with the White House claiming the tax will cost American tech companies >$500M annually.

Despite the news, the CAD seems to have found a bottom for now, up ~4% off recent lows.

Gold has been a good place to hide throughout the tariff back and forth, outperforming markets YTD as inflation concerns increase investor appetite for safe havens.

The move in gold hasn’t been met with a corresponding move in gold stocks though - a topic we plan to dive into in the near future.

After MDA’s $1.1B contract win earlier this week we did a deep dive on the space industry and it turns out it’s not all billionaire space cowboys.

Space isn’t coming one day, it’s here now - and a number of Canadian companies stand to benefit.

The space industry used to be all government spend but things look different this time around, with corporate space revenues reaching ~$450B in 2023, nearly 80% of total space industry activity.

The fastest growing commercial segment is satellites which have gone through a huge shift in strategy over the past decade, from deploying a small number of large satellites to a large number of small satellites into low earth orbit (LEO).

Those smaller satellites have lifespans 2-4x shorter than the old ones… they don’t make ‘em like they used to. This has huge implications for the commercial space industry at large.

If satellites are to be replaced every 5 years in large quantities, it could result in smoother, more predictable revenue streams for companies across the value chain.

If the industry does move towards a recurring revenue model, The Street will have an easier time valuing space companies, meaning financing doors open up, a force multiplier on growth - sweet, sweet leverage.

We dug into a handful of Canadian names that are set to benefit from the continued development of the space industry, check it out below and share it with a friend.

If the above link won’t work, try this: https://www.bullpen.finance/content/36

For anyone that needs it - it doesn’t get better, you just get used to the pain. Halfway there!

Canadian Tire (CTC-A) shed ~8% after reporting earnings, missing revenue by ~2% and earnings by ~5%. There were some bright spots in the quarter, like the company’s ROIC expanding by 150 bps to 9.4% - but the focus was on outlook, where management highlighted tariff uncertainty weakening consumer demand.

Topicus (TOI) is up on another deal, with its TSS subsidiary acquiring Dolist, an email marketing software and consultancy in France.

Sun Life Financial (SLF) was down big on a ~6% earnings miss, driven by weakness in the U.S. segment (down 39% Y/Y) related to challenges in the medical stop-loss business.

Fairfax (FFH) shot the lights out in Q4, with EPS of $50.42 crushing estimates of $41.44. Book Value per share climbed 14% Y/Y to ~$1,060 and net written premiums rose 12% Y/Y. FFH shares have ripped 50% over the last year, with multiples expanding to near 10-year highs.

Trisura Group (TSU) reported strong bottom-line results, with EPS of $0.79 handily beating expectations of $0.65, with 27% Y/Y growth in book value supported by strong results out of the U.S. surety business. TSU looks to be back on track, following a couple of challenging years.

Brookfield (BN) reported a strong quarter to cap off a great 2024, with $137B in inflows raised, $48B deployed in asset management, and a 17% Y/Y increase in fee-related earnings. Distributable earnings before realizations hit a record $0.94 in Q4 and we got a 13% dividend hike. BN should continue to have good capital deployment opportunities in areas like the energy transition and AI infrastructure.

goeasy (GSY) reported strong results, beating earnings thanks to 27% Y/Y growth in consumer loans. The company plans to grow the loan book to ~$7.5 bln by 2027 ($4.6B today), and it increased its annual dividend by 25% to $5.84. This name will be interesting to watch if the Canadian economy rolls over, given its focus on non-prime lending.