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WHAT'S ON TAP
Retail sales meet expectations
Canada to double non-U.S. exports
Trump kills Canada negotiations
FirstService falls 10% on guidance
Rogers gives update on MLSE deal
HOT OFF THE PRESS
Retail sales meet expectations
August’s retail sales shaped up largely as expected, gaining 1% M/M on an identical increase in volumes. Results were helped by a 1.8% gain in vehicle sales…
… which carried the group on an absolute basis, resulting in a miss on core sales - which grew 0.7% versus estimates of 1.2%.
The strength in auto activity drove solid M/M performance in Ontario and Quebec, which led regional results…
… but should be short-lived, with preliminary estimates for September calling for a 0.7% drop in retail sales.
Canada to double non-U.S. exports
After Carney’s budget address yesterday, the headline doing the rounds is his aim to double non-U.S. exports over ten years - adding $300B in new trade. While ambitious, the segment is already growing quickly…
… meaning the impact might be less pronounced than headlines would suggest. Assuming a doubling from 2024 and 25% growth in U.S. exports over that time period (conservative), we’ll have reduced reliance on our neighbours…
… but not to the point where Canada can operate independently. Bottom line: there’s no short-term solution and it’s likely to get worse before it gets better.
FUNNY BUSINESS
Speaking of pain, Trump has “put a stop” to all trade negotiations with Canada - citing an anti-tariff ad ran by Ontario…
… that’s likely to put Doug Ford in the hot seat for the next little while.
Regardless, Trump would have found another reason to stall talks until USMCA negotiations - leveraging an expiring shot clock to get rid of our trade surplus.
ON OUR RADAR
GAINERS & LOSERS
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FirstService (FSV) shed 10% on a Q3 that missed small on revenue and beat small on earnings, but the selloff was linked to management’s framing of Q4 - with mid-single digit organic growth in residential…
… and material weakness in the organic growth of its restoration (down 20%) and roofing (down 10%) businesses, which have been under pressure through 2025.
With the stock now trading below it’s long-term average valuation…
… investors are waiting for clarity on an end market recovery before giving FSV a bid.
We’re in a good position, and we’ll start to see the growth come back. I just can’t tell you — I can’t give you dates in time. We need more clarity in the marketplace.
Rogers (RCI-B) hit fresh YTD highs with its Q3 results, gaining 3% on a top and bottom line beat - partially driven by its recent acquisition of Bell’s MLSE stake.
With the remaining 25% stake set to be brought in next year, the company is inching closer to a monetization event.
We anticipate a transaction could occur over the next 18 months or so, likely coincident with or subsequent to us acquiring the remaining 25% minority interest in MLSE.
INSIDER TRANSACTIONS
| Insider | Company | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Todd | A&W (AW) | $193K |
| TWC Enterprises | Auto Properties (APR-U) | $9.7M |
EARNINGS
YESTERDAY’S EARNINGS
| Company | Actual | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇦 Rogers (RCI-B) | 1.37 | 1.24 |
| 🇨🇦 FirstService (FSV) | 1.76 | 1.73 |
| 🇨🇦 Hammond (HPS-A) | 1.56 | 1.58 |
| 🇺🇸 T-Mobile (TMUS) | 2.77 | 2.57 |
| 🇺🇸 Blackstone (BX) | 1.52 | 1.23 |
| 🇺🇸 Intel (INTC) | 0.23 | 0.01 |
| 🇺🇸 Union Pacific (UNP) | 3.08 | 3.00 |
| 🇺🇸 Honeywell (HON) | 2.82 | 2.57 |
TODAY’S EARNINGS
| Company | Time | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 P&G (PG) | AM | 1.90 |
ECONOMIC DATA
YESTERDAY’S ECONOMIC RELEASES
| Release | Actual | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇦 Retail Sales M/M | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| 🇺🇸 Existing Home Sales | 4.1M | 4.1M |
TODAY’S ECONOMIC RELEASES
| Release | Time | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 Inflation M/M | 8:30AM | 0.4% |
| 🇺🇸 Inflation Y/Y | 8:30AM | 3.1% |
| 🇺🇸 Consumer Sentiment | 10:00AM | 55 |
COMMODITIES
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Flagging the move in crude prices, which are driven by fresh sanctions on Russian oil from the Trump administration.
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