August’s retail sales shaped up largely as expected, gaining 1% M/M on an identical increase in volumes. Results were helped by a 1.8% gain in vehicle sales…

… which carried the group on an absolute basis, resulting in a miss on core sales - which grew 0.7% versus estimates of 1.2%.

The strength in auto activity drove solid M/M performance in Ontario and Quebec, which led regional results…

… but should be short-lived, with preliminary estimates for September calling for a 0.7% drop in retail sales.

After Carney’s budget address yesterday, the headline doing the rounds is his aim to double non-U.S. exports over ten years - adding $300B in new trade. While ambitious, the segment is already growing quickly…

… meaning the impact might be less pronounced than headlines would suggest. Assuming a doubling from 2024 and 25% growth in U.S. exports over that time period (conservative), we’ll have reduced reliance on our neighbours…

… but not to the point where Canada can operate independently. Bottom line: there’s no short-term solution and it’s likely to get worse before it gets better.

Speaking of pain, Trump has “put a stop” to all trade negotiations with Canada - citing an anti-tariff ad ran by Ontario…

… that’s likely to put Doug Ford in the hot seat for the next little while.

Regardless, Trump would have found another reason to stall talks until USMCA negotiations - leveraging an expiring shot clock to get rid of our trade surplus.

FirstService (FSV) shed 10% on a Q3 that missed small on revenue and beat small on earnings, but the selloff was linked to management’s framing of Q4 - with mid-single digit organic growth in residential…

… and material weakness in the organic growth of its restoration (down 20%) and roofing (down 10%) businesses, which have been under pressure through 2025.

With the stock now trading below it’s long-term average valuation…

… investors are waiting for clarity on an end market recovery before giving FSV a bid.

Rogers (RCI-B) hit fresh YTD highs with its Q3 results, gaining 3% on a top and bottom line beat - partially driven by its recent acquisition of Bell’s MLSE stake.

With the remaining 25% stake set to be brought in next year, the company is inching closer to a monetization event.

Flagging the move in crude prices, which are driven by fresh sanctions on Russian oil from the Trump administration.

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