All eyes on the Fed rate decision at 1pm today - markets are expecting a pause, but will be watching for dovish signals.

Canada’s trade deficit for March narrowed to $0.5B, tighter than expectations for a $1.6B deficit.

Import activity slowed by 1.5% M/M, the first decline since September driven by a >15% slowdown in metals, minerals, and energy products.

The drop in export activity was more modest at 0.2%, with a near-7% drop in U.S. exports…

… offset by notable gains with other partners - Europe and the UK in particular.

Under a Carney-led government and unresolved trade tensions with the U.S., we could see Canada continue to tap Europe to backfill lost activity.

When CEO Bob Espey announced he’d step down by year-end at the latest, we said the stage was set for a takeout and we got one Monday morning, with Sunoco offering $44 per share (25% premium) in a $9B deal.

Now it’s not the first time Sunoco has offered to buy PKI ($8B offer in 2023), given its heavy U.S. footprint could use some diversification from Parkland’s Canada/Caribbean operations…

… but that’s not what’s interesting here. The announcement came just a day before PKI’s now postponed AGM, where 20% shareholder and activist Simpson Oil was set to overhaul the board - essentially, the current board is giving them the finger.

As that fight continues and investors question the potential for regulators to block the deal, it’s not hard to see why PKI shares closed >10% below the takeout price - this one is far from over.

For our first look at PKI, go here: https://www.bullpen.finance/content/54

Despite a 3% bump yesterday, a barrel of crude oil is trading down nearly 20% so far this year, dragging Canadian oil companies down with it.

The underperformance, and the fact that I just watched Landman, has prompted us to sink our teeth into the industry - breaking down granular performance, framing the fundamental downside, and why this time might be different. Check it out!

If the above link doesn’t work, try this: https://www.bullpen.finance/content/111

Yesterday, Carney had his first meeting with Trump since the election. While there wasn’t much in the way of progress, at least we got some good facial expressions.

The elbows were down in this one, with the two playing nice despite remaining firm on key issues - time will tell if it got things moving in the right direction.

Flagging the grocery insiders again, who are selling more shares than food. This time it’s Loblaw, after Empire on Monday.

Gold continues its hot streak, brining the miners with it including Lundin Gold (LUG).

Ag Growth (AFN) was up ~4% after its earnings print, with revenue beating estimates despite being down 9% Y/Y. Management reiterated its full-year adj. EBITDA guide of at least $225M and provided guidance for Q2 of $50-55M. The order book grew 5% Y/Y to $725M.

Shopify (SHOP) sold off yesterday with other tech/high beta names ahead of its results tomorrow. We think weak results out of U.S. fintech names with SMB exposure could be weighing on SHOP sentiment.