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WHAT'S ON TAP
HOT OFF THE PRESS
Trade deficit hits $6B
February’s $5.7B trade deficit was bigger than expected, growing over last month…
… on the back of a 14% rise in US imports, which squeezed our surplus south of the border to the lowest level since 2020.
The increase was driven by a rebound in vehicle production, which pushed imports up 8% alongside higher gold demand…
… and led the 6% lift in exports…
… with passenger vehicle and light truck exports up over 40% versus the prior month.
Waste M&A is heating up
Regional waste assets are trading hands, with Clairvest (CVG) netting $38M from the sale of Star Waste - after growing revenue >3x through eight acquisitions in the past four years. Big players are willing to pay up for local platforms…
… resulting in a $2 per share book value gain post-close, further widening the discount CVG trades at.
GFL’s acquisition of Frontier Waste is a perfect example, adding a strong regional player (Texas) to its national footprint. The company has added ~$450M of revenue through M&A YTD, offsetting slowing organic growth…
… and adding density in its core markets, which should drive margin improvement post-integration.
If GFL’s head office relocation is any indication, there could be more activity in the southern states…
We think where we sit today, you could easily spend $1.5-2B. I think temporarily, leverage might be in the sort of 3.75-3.80x range intra-quarter, but then you still exit the year in the mid-3s.
… bringing its revenue composition more in-line with peers.
ON OUR RADAR
GAINERS & LOSERS
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Transcontinental (TCL-A) was up 9% on the back of its $30M+ acquisition of PDI Group, taking the in-store marketing (ISM) segment to ~$300M of run-rate revenue…
… and offsetting sluggish organic growth. The deal comes on the heels of TCL’s $2B packaging unit divestiture, which should translate to improved margin performance in the back half of 2026…
… keeping the balance sheet healthy enough for more tuck-in ISM deals…
… as they advance the pipeline.
We have 2 other ones in the pipeline also, a small one in the U.S. and one other one in the south of Montreal.
Groupe Dynamite (GRGD) added 6% on its Q4 results, which beat estimates on ~30% same-store sales growth and a 60% Y/Y rise in e-commerce revenue…
… that flowed through to higher EBITDA margins, which management expects to land around 38% in 2026.
That drove positive estimates revisions from the street, keeping a lid on the multiple after some recent trading volatility.
INSIDER TRANSACTIONS
| Insider | Company | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Gray | Ensign (ESI) | $250K |
| Samir Manji | RFA Financial (RFA) | $138K |
EARNINGS
THURSDAY’S EARNINGS
| Company | Actual | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇦 D2L Inc. (DTOL) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
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