June’s trade picture shaped up as expected, with the fifth straight monthly deficit of $5.9B weakening slightly versus May’s $5.5B…

… driven mainly by a 1.4% increase in imports tied to a $2B jump in industrial machinery.

Exports posted a second straight monthly gain, up 0.9% on higher prices which offset a 0.4% drop in volumes driven by tariff pressure…

… which is having its intended impact, with passenger vehicle exports hitting a 3-year low and steel & aluminum exports down more than 30% from normal levels.

Naturally, that’s strained the U.S. trade relationship - with Q2’s export value declining nearly 15% from the two year pre-tariff average…

… which other international exports can only backfill so much, posting their first M/M decline since February.

MDA Space (MDA) jumped ~20% on its third major satellite constellation project - a $1.8B deal with EchoStar with purchase options for an additional $1.7B, representing up to 200 satellites set for 2028 delivery.

The contract materially raises the floor on revenue from MDA’s satellite segment, which has been its fastest growing over the past year thanks to similar deals with Globalstar and Telesat.

With shorter replacement cycles on LEO satellites, MDA’s business model is getting more predictable - driving the multiple expansion that‘s been a tailwind for the Canadian space sector.

Carney’s announced another $1.2B of protective measures - this time for our lumber industry, after introducing more aggressive steel import quotas in July.

It makes sense, the situation is acute - but acting like there’s any alternative path here beyond mending the U.S. relationship is comical. It’s simple math: nearly 60% of our softwood lumber production heads south…

That’s ~28 million cubic metres, or ~12 billion board feet. If Build Canada Homes can lift housing starts to 500K per year over the next decade (big IF), that would add 2 billion board feet of new demand… or ~15% of U.S. exports… over ten years…

… and there’s a better chance that the remaining 85% would get absorbed by hockey sticks and Muskoka chairs than our other international trading partners. Bottom line: need to cut a deal, and soon.

5N Plus (VNP) was up >15% on an earnings beat powered by continued strength in its specialty semiconductors segment, which has rode the waves of both terrestrial and space solar demand.

Those waves look set to carry the company through the back half of the decade, with management announcing a ~30% expansion of its supply agreement with First Solar (VNP’s largest customer)…

… which should drive some positive estimates revisions. With where VNP currently trades, the market has baked in all that and then some.

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